Abstract:

Using the phenological observation of apricot blossoms and ground meteorological data from 1991 to 2020 at Hami National Reference Climatological Station, the variation trend, climatic causes and main influencing factors of the initial flowering period of the apricot blossoms in Hami Oasis were analyzed. The results showed that from 1991 to 2020, the initial flowering period of apricot blossoms in Hami Oasis had tended to occur early, while the average initial flowering period was April 3 to 4 (April 2 to 3 in leap years). The initial flowering period of apricot blossoms had a significantly negative correlation with the average minimum temperature in January, and the average maximum temperature in the middle of January and March. It had a significantly negative correlation with the average temperature, average maximum temperature, average minimum temperature and average ground temperature in March and mid to late March. It had a significantly negative correlation with the average sunshine duration in early March. The initial flowering period had a significantly positive correlation with the relative humidity in March and mid to late March. It had a significantly positive correlation with precipitation in late January and March. It had a significantly positive correlation with the beginning date of daily average temperature ≥5℃. The prediction model of the initial flowering period of apricot blossoms was established by stepwise regression analysis, and the good experimental results of the back-substitution test and prediction test showed that it could provide certain reference for the prediction of the initial flowering period of apricot blossoms.

Key words: apricot blossoms, initial flowering period, influencing factors, prediction model