Potential Geographical Distribution of Pomacea canaliculata in Nanjing Under Current and Future Climate Scenarios Based on Maximum Entropy Model

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2025-0363

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to understand the potential suitable area for Pomacea canaliculata in Nanjing and its influencing factors, this study utilized the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model and ArcGIS software to predict the potential geographical distribution of P. canaliculata in Nanjing under current and future climate scenarios based on its existing distribution samples and environmental variables. The MaxEnt model demonstrated high predictive accuracy, with an AUC value of 0.868±0.031. The factor contribution rate and knife cutting method test both suggested that population density, precipitation of the driest month, annual mean temperature, and mean diurnal temperature range were key environmental factors determing its potential geographic distribution of P. canaliculata, the total contribution rates of four environmental variables was 86.0%. Under current climatic conditions, the potential suitable area for P. canaliculata in Nanjing was 3071.4 km², mainly located along both banks of the Yangtze River and its southern regions. In future climate scenario (three periods: 2041-2060, 2061-2081 and 2081-2100, three shared socioeconomic pathway: SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585), the potential geographical distribution of P. canaliculata in Nanjing will expand, and the highly suitable area also will significantly increase. Therefore, measures must be taken to strengthen the management and prevention of P. canaliculata. The research results can provide scientific references for monitoring, early warning, and management strategies of P. canaliculata in Nanjing.

Key words: Pomacea canaliculata, MaxEnt model, biological invasion, potential suitable area, Nanjing

LI Daming, LIU Yanshan, ZHONG Liqiang, WANG Chaoqun, WANG Qing, DAI Pei, YU Yawen. Potential Geographical Distribution of Pomacea canaliculata in Nanjing Under Current and Future Climate Scenarios Based on Maximum Entropy Model[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2025, 41(33): 96-103.

Figures/Tables 8

References 34

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未来时期	SSP126	SSP245	SSP585
2041—2060年	0.860±0.037	0.857±0.042	0.862±0.052
2061—2080年	0.876±0.034	0.865±0.042	0.856±0.066
2081—2100年	0.852±0.040	0.866±0.037	0.852±0.022

未来时期	SSP126	SSP245	SSP585
2041—2060年	0.860±0.037	0.857±0.042	0.862±0.052
2061—2080年	0.876±0.034	0.865±0.042	0.856±0.066
2081—2100年	0.852±0.040	0.866±0.037	0.852±0.022

环境变量	贡献率/%	置换重要值/%
population	37.9	8.6
bio14	21.6	4.0
bio1	17.4	20.3
bio2	9.1	27.8
elevation	2.7	4.9
bio13	2.7	8.1
bio9	2.3	10.6
bio8	2.2	5.1
bio12	2.2	5.6
bio18	2.1	4.9

环境变量	贡献率/%	置换重要值/%
population	37.9	8.6
bio14	21.6	4.0
bio1	17.4	20.3
bio2	9.1	27.8
elevation	2.7	4.9
bio13	2.7	8.1
bio9	2.3	10.6
bio8	2.2	5.1
bio12	2.2	5.6
bio18	2.1	4.9

地理分布	SSP126			SSP245			SSP585
地理分布	2041—2060	2061—2080	2081—2100	2041—2060	2061—2080	2081—2100	2041—2060	2061—2080	2081—2100
非适生区	1215.5	2242.7	2523.3	93.8	50.2	1935.2	116.3	/	/
低适生区	392.6	751.0	1092.6	112.7	371.5	899.3	204.3	29.8	/
中适生区	937.1	1247.5	1136.2	410.7	760.4	1461.9	729.1	489.2	/
高适生区	4041.9	2345.9	1834.9	5969.8	5404.9	2290.7	5537.3	6068.0	6587.0