Abstract:

The study aims to clarify the spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions in Guangzhou, predict the future trend of agricultural carbon emissions, and provide theoretical support for formulating agricultural carbon reduction policies. Based on 4 carbon sources (agricultural inputs, rice cultivation, agricultural land use, and livestock farming) and 6 major crops, the paper adopted the carbon emission calculation theories of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to calculate agricultural carbon emissions, carbon uptake, and net carbon emissions in Guangzhou from 2007 to 2023, analyzed their dynamic evolution trends and spatiotemporal characteristics, dissected the influencing factors by using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model, and predicted the agricultural net carbon emissions of Guangzhou in the coming period using the gray prediction model. The results indicated that: (1) in 2023, Guangzhou’s agricultural carbon emissions, carbon uptake, and net emissions were 103.14×10⁴ tons, 63.40×10⁴ tons, and 39.74×10⁴ tons. From 2007 to 2023, agricultural carbon emissions initially increased, peaked at 235.72×10⁴ tons in 2010, then declined and stabilized with minor fluctuations, livestock farming contributed the highest proportion (40.14% in 2023); agricultural carbon uptake first increased, reaching its peak of 95.15×10⁴ tons in 2016, and then declined, with annual vegetable carbon uptake being the primary source of Guangzhou’s annual agricultural carbon uptake; agricultural net carbon emissions exhibited a fluctuating downward trend overall, with a spatial distribution characterized by higher values in the northeast and lower values in the southwest, Zengcheng District and Conghua District were key areas requiring attention for future agricultural carbon emission reductions; (2) agricultural production efficiency, total agricultural machinery power and industrial structure positively contributed to reducing net emissions, while agricultural economic development partially increased net emissions; (3) agricultural carbon emissions in Guangzhou had reached the peak in 2010, achieving carbon neutrality in 2060 remained challenging. Accordingly, the paper proposes recommendations such as strengthening coordination, clarifying goals and roadmaps of agricultural carbon neutrality, innovating green low carbon technologies, developing carbon inclusive methodologies, and exploring agricultural carbon trading pilots

Key words: Guangzhou, carbon emissions, carbon peaks, LMDI, GM(1,1)