Abstract:

The issue of agricultural carbon emission is getting increasingly concern, and the study of agricultural carbon emission at provincial-level is of great significance for carbon reduction. To clarify the spatio-temporal variation rules and influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions in Anhui Province, the agricultural carbon emissions in Anhui Province was calculated by IPCC method in this study according to the Statistical Yearbook of Anhui Province from 2003 to 2022 and the statistical yearbook of each city. The influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions and their contribution degrees were analyzed by LMDI method. The results showed that: (1) from 2002 to 2021, the total agricultural carbon emission in Anhui Province showed a trend of increase first and then decrease with fluctuation, reaching a peak of 21.8962 million tons in 2003, which decreased with fluctuation from 2004 to 2021 of 12.4336 million tons. (2) Livestock and poultry breeding was the largest source of carbon emissions in Anhui Province, accounting for 82.09% in 2002, of which the carbon emissions from cattle farming accounted for more than 50%. (3) The total agricultural carbon emissions of Tongling, Wuhu and Maanshan were in the growth mode, while the total agricultural carbon emissions of other cities were in the decline stage. (4) Agricultural production efficiency was the key negative driving factor of agricultural carbon emissions in Anhui province, and its contribution rate reached the lowest value of 0.66 in 2011. The development level of agricultural economy was the key factor of positive driving force, and the contribution rate reached the highest value of 1.34 in 2004. These results could provide theoretical reference for agricultural carbon reduction methods and policy formulation.

Key words: Anhui Province, IPCC, LMDI, agricultural carbon emissions, influencing factors, spatiotemporal variation