Abstract:

To reveal and predict the time dynamics of land resources carrying capacity of karst mountain city Guiyang under the background of rapid urbanization and ecological construction, based on the carrying capacity of cultivated land, ecological carrying capacity and social-economic carrying capacity, the authors used the entropy weight method to evaluate the carrying capacity of land resources of Guiyang from 1998 to 2018, and introduced the obstacle degree model to get the obstacle factors of land resource carrying capacity and forecast the development trend of land resources carrying capacity in the future decade. The results showed that: from 1998 to 2018, the bearing capacity of land resources of Guiyang gradually increased from 0.1809 in 1998 to 0.8908 in 2018, with an average annual growth of 0.0338 and the state of crisis was transformed into a state of prosperity. The contribution degree of each subsystem to the land resources carrying capacity of Guiyang was different, and the contribution of different subsystems was different in diverse time periods. Before 2005, the main contribution was from cultivated land bearing capacity, and after 2005 the social-economic carrying capacity and ecological carrying capacity became dominant. The green rate, the number of employed population and the investment density of fixed assets in urban built-up areas were the direct obstacle factors of the land resources carrying capacity of Guiyang, and the per capita grain output, per capita water resources and population density were the potential obstacle factors. In the future decade, the land resources carrying capacity of Guiyang will continue to increase and become rich. The research provides a scientific basis for the construction and protection of ecological environment, the sustainable development of social economy and the spatial planning of land resources in Guiyang.

Key words: carrying capacity of land resources, entropy weight method, subsystems, obstacle model, grey prediction model, Guiyang City