Abstract:

The objectives are to avoid the application of delayed or excessive pesticide, improve the control efficiency, and achieve precise control on potato late blight. The potato late blight forecast model of CARAH, NEGFRY model of Denmark, and conventional control of applying fungicide were combined and used in field plot experiment. The control effect and economic benefit were analyzed by investigating the occurrence of potato late blight, and the role of CARAH model on potato late blight control was evaluated. The results showed that the fitting degree of the disease warning of CM was 93% compared with the actual disease occurrence. Using the CM, the application times of fungicides were reduced 1-3 times, the yield loss was reduced by 48.47%, the commercial potato rate was increased by 12.63%, the diseased potato rate was decreased by 4.43%, and the economic benefit was increased by 10966 yuan/hm². Therefore, the establishment of CARAH model of potato late blight in Heilongjiang Province could guide the prevention and control of potato late blight in Heilongjiang Province, reduce the unnecessary application of fungicide, and achieve the effect of precise treatment and target of reduction chemicals.

Key words: potato late blight, monitoring and warning model, control effect, Heilongjiang Province