Possible Impacts of Climate Change on the Risk of Apple Overwintering in China

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2022-0141

Abstract

Abstract:

Safe overwintering is an important index to assess the possible impact of climate change on apple planting boundary and variety selection. Based on existing research, four agro-climatic indices were proposed to evaluate the effect of climate change on apple safe overwintering in China. The four agro-climatic indices, respectively, indicate the risk of damage to apple by early winter frost, the risk of the intensity and duration of low freezing temperature, the risk of damage by extreme low temperature, and the risk of damage to developing flower buds by late spring frost. We studied the variation trends and abrupt change characteristics of the four agro-climatic indices across main apple-producing regions of China, including the Loess Plateau, Bohai Bay, Old Course of the Yellow River, Southwest Highlands and Xinjiang, by using statistical methods and the ArcGIS analysis tools based on meteorological observational data from 1961 to 2015. The results showed that temperature significantly increased during the apple overwintering period in main apple-producing regions of China, while the number of annual accumulative frost days and the frequency of extreme low temperature events significantly decreased. The risk of damage to apple by early winter frost was increased due to the shortened interval between first frost and first low temperature in northern Bohai Bay, Old Course of the Yellow River and northern Xinjiang. The risk of the intensity and duration of low freezing temperature during the apple overwintering period decreased, so did the risk of damage by extreme low temperature, especially in high latitude regions. But the frequency of extreme low temperature events was uncertain in the Loess Plateau and Xinjiang producing regions. In addition, the risk of damage to developing apple flower buds by late spring frost increased in the Loess Plateau, Liaoning, western Sichuan and Xinjiang producing regions. To sum up, the risk of the intensity and duration of low freezing temperature and the risk of damage by extreme low temperature decreased, but the risk of damage to apple by early winter frost and the risk of damage to developing flower buds by late spring frost increased.

Key words: climate change, apple, agro-climatic indices, overwintering, risk

CLC Number:

ZHANG Yong, QU Zhenjiang, LIU Yuefeng, LIU Lu, LI Yanli, PAN Yuying. Possible Impacts of Climate Change on the Risk of Apple Overwintering in China[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2022, 38(21): 88-96.

Figures/Tables 6

References 37

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评估指标	表征意义	计算方法
D_mf/d	初冬低温伤害风险	≤-15℃首次出现日期与初霜日的间隔日数
∑T_-20/(℃·d)	冬季持续性低温伤害风险	冬季日最低气温小于等于-20℃冷积温
Tem/℃	冬季极端低温危害风险	冬季极端最低气温
∑T_m_≥6/(℃·d)	脱驯化期的低温伤害风险	1月1日至终霜日最高气温≥6℃积温

评估指标	表征意义	计算方法
D_mf/d	初冬低温伤害风险	≤-15℃首次出现日期与初霜日的间隔日数
∑T_-20/(℃·d)	冬季持续性低温伤害风险	冬季日最低气温小于等于-20℃冷积温
Tem/℃	冬季极端低温危害风险	冬季极端最低气温
∑T_m_≥6/(℃·d)	脱驯化期的低温伤害风险	1月1日至终霜日最高气温≥6℃积温

	D_mf	∑T_-20	Tem	∑T_m_≥6	T_C	N_≤-20	L_fd	F_fd
D_mf	1
∑T_-20	0.053	1
Tem	0.010	0.815^**	1
∑T_m_≥6	-0.125	0.046	-0.007	1
T_C	-0.152	0.664^**	0.662^**	0.192	1
N_≤-20	-0.105	-0.963^**	-0.844^**	-0.049	-0.716^**	1
L_fd	-0.008	-0.454^**	-0.503^**	0.427^**	-0.339^*	0.508^**	1
F_fd	0.019	0.379^**	0.513^**	-0.260	0.161	-0.430^**	-0.611^**	1

	D_mf	∑T_-20	Tem	∑T_m_≥6	T_C	N_≤-20	L_fd	F_fd
D_mf	1
∑T_-20	0.053	1
Tem	0.010	0.815^**	1
∑T_m_≥6	-0.125	0.046	-0.007	1
T_C	-0.152	0.664^**	0.662^**	0.192	1
N_≤-20	-0.105	-0.963^**	-0.844^**	-0.049	-0.716^**	1
L_fd	-0.008	-0.454^**	-0.503^**	0.427^**	-0.339^*	0.508^**	1
F_fd	0.019	0.379^**	0.513^**	-0.260	0.161	-0.430^**	-0.611^**	1

	黄土高原	环渤海湾	黄河故道	西南高地	新疆产区
初冬低温伤害风险	风险降低	北部风险(辽宁)增加	风险增加	—	北疆风险增加
冬季持续性低温伤害风险	风险降低	风险降低	—	—	风险降低
冬季极端低温危害风险	不确定性较大	风险降低	风险降低	风险降低	不确定性较大
脱驯化期的低温伤害风险	风险增加	北部风险(辽宁)增加	风险降低	川西风险增加	北疆风险增加