Abstract:

The competition in seed industry is essentially competing for seed quality. Simulation analysis of the dynamic change of seed quality indexes aims at optimizing the seed quality standard timely and appropriately, and promoting the high quality development of seed industry. Based on the survey data of cereal crop seed quality inspection from 2016 to 2020, this study constructed and validated a serial of Logistic models of rice, maize and wheat seed quality indexes to simulate the change dynamics of seed quality indexes. The results showed that, all the determination coefficients of the 17 constructed Logistic models of seed quality indexes reached extremely significant level, and the goodness of fit of the models also reached excellent or extremely excellent level. On the basis of the simulation analysis, the purity standard of hybrid rice seed in the current standard was raised from 96% to 97%; the clarity index of rice was raised from 98% to 99%; the clarity index of maize was raised from 99% to 99.4%; the threshold value of maize germination rate was advised from 85% to around 90%; the moisture standard of japonica rice and maize in north China was adjusted to 15.0% and 13.2%, respectively; other threshold values of seed quality indexes of cereal crops were adjusted or only had minor revising. This study can provide reference for seed quality standard revision of cereal crops.

Key words: cereal crops, seed, quality standard, Logistic model, simulation analysis