Spatial-temporal Variation Characteristics of Chill Accumulation in Two Major Apple Production Areas in China

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0301

Abstract

Abstract:

Deciduous fruit trees require a certain low temperature accumulation to break dormancy before flowering and fruiting normally. The objective of this paper was to study the characteristic and variation of chill accumulation in main apple producing areas in China, so as to provide a reference for the safe production of apple. Based on the daily temperature data of 34 meteorological stations in two major apple-producing areas in China from 1961-2017 and five international commonly used chill models i.e. 0-7.2℃ model, Utah model, Positive Utah model, Modified Utah model and Dynamic model, we calculated chill accumulation in the two major apple-producing areas. And then the spatial-temporal variation characteristics and influencing factors of chill accumulation were analyzed and compared. We also pointed out the similarities and differences between the models, as well as the safety of future fruit tree production. The results showed that the chill accumulations obtained by the five models had nearly the consistent spatial distribution characteristic, which was high in the south and low in the north of the study area. For the 0-7.2℃,Utah, Positive Utah, Modified Utah and Dynamic models respectively, the highest values were 1717CH, 1690CU, 1730CU, 1576CU and 76 CP in Qingdao, Shandong Province, and the lowest values were 533CH, 423CU, 426CU, 390CU and 29CP in Weichang, Hebei Province. Linear trend analysis showed that the chill accumulation of all the sites had an increasing trend (P<0.05). And correlation analysis also showed that the chill accumulation had positive correlation with mean winter temperature (P<0.05), while they were negatively correlated with latitude (P<0.01). Multiple regression analysis indicated that, among the three influencing factors of latitude, longitude and altitude, latitude contributed most to chill accumulation, followed by altitude, while the chill accumulations were insensitive to the change of longitude. In the context of climate change, the current region is still conducive to the safe and stable production of apple fruit trees. Although the results of the five models are not significantly different, it is still necessary to use multi-model to analyze and study the chill accumulation in order to avoid the influence of the instability factors in the context of climate change.

Key words: deciduous fruit trees, apple, chill accumulation, utah model, dynamic model, climate change

QIU Meijuan, LIU Buchun, LIU Yuan, WANG Yizhou. Spatial-temporal Variation Characteristics of Chill Accumulation in Two Major Apple Production Areas in China[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2024, 40(9): 106-116.

Figures/Tables 8

References 34

[1]	姜卫兵, 韩浩章, 汪良驹, 等. 落叶果树需冷量及其机理研究进展[J]. 果树学报, 2003, 20(5):364-368.
[2]	HORVATH D P, ANDERSON J V, CHAO W S, et al. Knowing when to grow: signals regulating bud dormancy[J]. Trends in plant science, 2003, 8(11):534-540. doi: 10.1016/j.tplants.2003.09.013 pmid: 14607098
[3]	高东升, 束怀瑞, 李宪利. 几种适宜设施栽培果树需冷量的研究[J]. 园艺学报, 2001, 28(4):283-289.
[4]	HOWE G T, DAVIS J, JEKNIC Z, et al. Physiological and genetic approaches to studying endodormancy-related traits in Populus[J]. HortScience, 1999, 34(7):1174-1184.
[5]	王海波, 刘凤之, 韩晓, 等. 葡萄需冷量和需热量估算模型及设施促早栽培品种筛选[J]. 农业工程学报, 2017, 33(17):187-193.
[6]	SUGIURA T. Temperatures inhibiting endodormancy completion in Japanese pear flower buds[J]. Journal of agricultural meteorology, 2003, 59(1):43-49. doi: 10.2480/agrmet.59.43 URL
[7]	PETRI J L, LEITE G B. Consequences of insufficient winter chilling on apple tree bud-break[J]. Acta horticulturae, 2004, 662:53-60.
[8]	WEINBERGER J H. Chilling requirements of peach varieties. Proceedings[J]. American society for horticultural science, 1950, 56,122-128
[9]	RICHARDSON E A, SEELEY S D, WALKER D R. A model for estimating the completion of rest for redhaven and elberta peach trees[J]. Hort science, 1974, 9(4):331-332.
[10]	FISHMAN S, EREZ A, COUVILLON G A. The temperature-dependence of dormancy breaking in plants-computer-simulation of processes studied under controlled temperatures[J]. Journal of theoretical biology, 1987, 126(3):309-321. doi: 10.1016/S0022-5193(87)80237-0 URL
[11]	LINSLEY-NOAKES G C, ALLAN P, MATTHEE G. Modification of rest completion prediction models for improved accuracy in South African stone fruit orchards[J]. Journal of the Southern African society for horticultural sciences, 1994, 4 (1):13-15.
[12]	BENNETT J. Temperature and bud rest period: effect of temperature and exposure on the rest period of deciduous plant leaf buds investigated[J]. California agriculture, 1949, 3(11):9-12.
[13]	BALDOCCHI D, WONG S. Accumulated winter chill is decreasing in the fruit growing regions of California[J]. Climatic change, 2008, 87:S153-S166.
[14]	王力荣, 朱更瑞, 方伟超, 等. 桃品种需冷量评价模式的探讨[J]. 园艺学报, 2003, 30(4):379-383.
[15]	章镇, 高志红, 盛炳成, 等. 葡萄不同品种需冷量研究初报[J]. 中国果树, 2002(3):15-17.
[16]	沈元月, 郭家选, 祝军, 等. 早熟桃品种需冷量和需热量的研究初报[J]. 中国果树, 1999(2):20-21.
[17]	LINVILL D E. Calculating chilling hours and chill units from daily maximum and minimum temperature observations[J]. Hortscience, 1990, 25(1):14-16. doi: 10.21273/HORTSCI.25.1.14 URL
[18]	ALLAN P, RUFUS G, LINSLEY-NOAKES G C, et al. Winter chill models in a mild subtropical area and effects of constant 6℃ chilling on peach budbreak[J]. Acta hortic, 1995, 409:9-17.
[19]	LUEDELING E, ZHANG M, LUEDELING V, et al. Sensitivity of winter chill models for fruit and nut trees to climate change[J]. Agriculture ecosystems & environment, 2009, 133:23-31. doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2009.04.016 URL
[20]	CAMPOY J A, RUIZ D, ALLDERMAN L, et al. The fulfilment of chilling requirements and the adaptation of apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.) in warm winter climates: an approach in murcia (Spain) and the western cape (South Africa)[J]. European journal of agronomy, 2012, 37:43-55. doi: 10.1016/j.eja.2011.10.004 URL
[21]	庄维兵, 章镇, 侍婷, 等. 落叶果树需冷量及其估算模型研究进展[J]. 果树学报, 2012, 29(3):447-453.
[22]	LUEDELING E. Climate change impacts on winter chill for temperate fruit and nut production: a review[J]. Scientia Horticulturae, 2012, 144:218-229. doi: 10.1016/j.scienta.2012.07.011 URL
[23]	ALLAN P, LINSLEY-NOAKES G C, HOLCROFT D M, et al. Kiwifruit research in a subtropical area[J]. Acta horticulturae, 1997, 444:37-42.
[24]	BALANDIER P, BONHOMME M, RAGEAU R, et al. Leaf bud endodormancy release in peach trees-evaluation of temperature models in temperate and tropical climates[J]. Agricultural and forest meteorology, 1993, 67(1-2):95-113. doi: 10.1016/0168-1923(93)90052-J URL
[25]	EREZ A, FISHMAN S, LINSLEY-NOAKES G C, et al. The dynamic model for rest completion in peach buds[J]. Acta horticulturae, 1990, 276:165-174.
[26]	GARDNER R A W, BERTLING I. Effect of winter chilling and paclobutrazol on floral bud production in Eucalyptus nitens[J]. South African journal of botany, 2005, 71(2):238-249. doi: 10.1016/S0254-6299(15)30139-3 URL
[27]	PEREZ F J, ORMENO N J, REYNAERT B, et al. Use of the dynamic model for the assessment of winter chilling in a temperate and a subtropical climatic zone of Chile[J]. Chilean journal of agricultural research, 2008, 68:198-206.
[28]	中华人民共和国国家统计局. 中国统计年鉴2018[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2018.
[29]	赵政阳. 中国果树科学与实践.苹果[M]. 西安: 陕西科学技术出版社, 2015.
[30]	符淙斌, 王强. 气候突变的定义和检测方法[J]. 大气科学, 1992, 16(4):482-493.
[31]	ALBURQUERQUE N, GARCía-MONTIEL F, CARRILLO A, et al. Chilling and heat requirements of sweet cherry cultivars and the relationship between altitude and the probability of satisfying the chill requirements[J]. Environmental and experimental botany, 2008, 64(2):162-170. doi: 10.1016/j.envexpbot.2008.01.003 URL
[32]	DARBYSHIRE R, WEBB L, GOODWIN I, et al. Winter chilling trends for deciduous fruit trees in Australia[J]. Agricultural and forest meteorology, 2011, 151(8):1074-1085. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.03.010 URL
[33]	MEINSHAUSEN M, SMITH S J, CALVIN K, et al. The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300[J]. Climatic change, 2011, 109(1-2):213-241. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z URL
[34]	李博, 周天军. 基于IPCC A1B情景的中国未来气候变化预估:多模式集合结果及其不确定性[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2010, 6(4):270-276.

	0~7.2℃		犹他		正犹他		改进的犹他		动力学
	56年	36年	56年	36年	56年	36年	56年	36年	56年	36年
纬度	-0.747^**	-0.730^**	-0.742^**	-0.725^**	-0.761^**	-0.747^**	-0.744^**	-0.728^**	-0.669^**	-0.659^**
经度	-0.095	-0.077	-0.085	-0.066	-0.124	-0.109	-0.091	-0.072	0.008	0.011
海拔	-0.188	-0.209	-0.207	-0.225	-0.191	-0.109	-0.206	-0.225	-0.264	-0.275

	0~7.2℃		犹他		正犹他		改进的犹他		动力学
	56年	36年	56年	36年	56年	36年	56年	36年	56年	36年
纬度	-0.747^**	-0.730^**	-0.742^**	-0.725^**	-0.761^**	-0.747^**	-0.744^**	-0.728^**	-0.669^**	-0.659^**
经度	-0.095	-0.077	-0.085	-0.066	-0.124	-0.109	-0.091	-0.072	0.008	0.011
海拔	-0.188	-0.209	-0.207	-0.225	-0.191	-0.109	-0.206	-0.225	-0.264	-0.275