Abstract:

The overwintering period and spring germination-flowering stage of Prunus domestica in the Shihezi region are critical phenological phases. Investigating the changes in winter low temperatures and the risk intensity of spring final frost disasters in this area is crucial for the development of the Prunus domestica industry. This study uses temperature data from November to the following May (1961-2024) and phenological data of Prunus domestica, applying climate diagnostic analysis methods to evaluate the impacts of winter temperature changes and final frost on the growth of Prunus domestica, and to study the disaster risk intensity caused by final frost. The results showed that the semi-lethal low-temperature index for new branches of Prunus domestica was -24.1℃. The risk of frost damage below this index temperature during the winter severe cold period in Shihezi from 1961 to 2024 was as high as 82.2%. With climate warming, the probability of frost damage risk dropped to 60.0% after 2000, and the average cold damage decreased by 22.2 percentage points. The spring final frost period tended to end earlier, but its distribution was relatively scattered. Final frosts in late April and later posed a threat to the germination and flowering of Prunus domestica. The risk of final frost in late April and beyond was 53.2%, which decreased by 28.2 percentage points after 2000. The average final frost disaster risk intensity in Shihezi was 34.8%, with moderate disaster risk intensity accounting for 23.4% and severe frost disaster risk intensity accounting for 28.1%. After 2000, the final frost disaster risk intensity decreased linearly by 8.6 percentage points. Under the influence of climate warming, the rise in winter temperatures and the earlier end of frost are beneficial to the safe overwintering of Prunus domestica and its spring germination, growth, and flowering. Even though winter temperatures have risen and the disaster risk caused by final frost is weakening, due to the instability of extreme climate changes, frost prevention measures remain a key part of Prunus domestica production.

Key words: Prunus domestica, overwintering period, flowering period, low-temperature cold damage, final frost, disaster risk degree