Prediction of the Disaster Risk of Overcast and Rainy Days on Flue-cured Tobacco Planting in Yunnan

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2021-0228

Abstract

Abstract:

To study the effects of future disaster risk changes of overcast and rainy days with ‘spatial and temporal dynamics’ on flue-cured tobacco planting in Yunnan, based on flue-cured tobacco planting suitability index and overcast and rainy grade index, we adopted the approaches of multivariable regression, interpolation and raster calculating in combination with the observed meteorological data from 1981 to 2010 and the RCPs emission scenario forecast results under global climate patterns HadGEM2-ES from 2021 to 2050. The results show that the planting pattern of flue-cured tobacco in Yunnan will be transformed as the weather changes in the future. The suitable areas will expand with the warming climate, while the disaster risk of overcast and rainy days will grow at the same time. The high-risk areas will be increased, while the low-risk areas and medium-risk areas will be narrowed. In the future, the low- risk areas will be transformed into a higher level, and disaster centers will expand northward and eastward. The risk of overcast and rainy days of flue-cured tobacco at all levels will be significantly different under different decadal periods and emission scenarios. The risk will change dramatically under the RCP8.5 scenario, while RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios will have similar risk changes. In the future, the disaster risk change of overcast and rainy days of flue-cured tobacco in Yunnan will show temporal and spatial increase and difference. To avoid meteorological disasters, agricultural infrastructure construction should be enhanced.

Key words: future climate change, emission scenario, flue-cured tobacco, overcast and rainy days, disaster risk, Yunnan

CLC Number:

S572
S162.54

HAN Min, YANG Pengwu, HE Yuqin, HU Xueqiong, ZHU Yong. Prediction of the Disaster Risk of Overcast and Rainy Days on Flue-cured Tobacco Planting in Yunnan[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2022, 38(4): 69-75.

Figures/Tables 8

References 30

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指标	最适宜	适宜	次适宜	不适宜
7月平均气温/℃	20.0~22.0	19.0~23.5	18.5~26.5	<18.5或>26.5
7—8月日照时数/h	≥250	≥220	≥180	<180
4—9月降水量/mm	550~1250	450~1250	450~1400	>1400或<450

指标	最适宜	适宜	次适宜	不适宜
7月平均气温/℃	20.0~22.0	19.0~23.5	18.5~26.5	<18.5或>26.5
7—8月日照时数/h	≥250	≥220	≥180	<180
4—9月降水量/mm	550~1250	450~1250	450~1400	>1400或<450

等级	持续阴雨日数(R)/d	烤烟受害特征
轻	3≤R≤6	烤烟长势缓慢
中	7≤R≤14	徒长纤弱、叶大而薄
重	R>14	出现早花或变黄甚至死亡

等级	持续阴雨日数(R)/d	烤烟受害特征
轻	3≤R≤6	烤烟长势缓慢
中	7≤R≤14	徒长纤弱、叶大而薄
重	R>14	出现早花或变黄甚至死亡

致灾因子危险性D	多元回归方程	R²
D₁	D₁=493.92+0.26r-21.86lat+0.061h	0.68
D₂	D₂=1393.81+0.27r-15.11lot+5.87lat+0.034h	0.72