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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2013, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (17): 156-160.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2012-3807

• 三农研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

化肥施用对中国粮食产量的贡献率分析——基于主成分回归C-D生产函数模型的实证研究

房丽萍 孟军   

  • 收稿日期:2012-11-23 修回日期:2012-12-29 出版日期:2013-06-15 发布日期:2013-06-15
  • 基金资助:
    基于3S技术的大豆生产力动态预测技术研究

Application of Chemical Fertilizer on Grain Yield in China Analysis of Contribution Rate——Based on Principal Component Regression C-D Production Function Model and Its Empirical Study

  • Received:2012-11-23 Revised:2012-12-29 Online:2013-06-15 Published:2013-06-15

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摘要： 施肥是农业持续发展的重要措施，施用化肥对中国粮食安全的保障作用是投入其他生产要素所不能替代的，掌握化肥的增产效应从指导农业生产及确定科学有效的施肥方案方面来说，都具有重要的理论与实践意义。分析了化肥施用量与粮食产量之间的关系，选取粮食作物播种面积、农用机械总动力、有效灌溉面积、化肥施用量和农业从业人员为中国粮食产量的影响因素，采用主成分回归C-D生产函数模型，计算了化肥投入对粮食增产的弹性及贡献率。结果表明：化肥施用与粮食产量之间存在较强的正相关关系；1978—2010年间化肥投入对粮食产量增长的弹性值为0.18，贡献率达20.79%，化肥对粮食增产的弹性和贡献与以往的研究结果相比略有下降，单位质量化肥投入带来的实际粮食产量增加量有所减少，但化肥投入仍是影响粮食产量增长的重要因素。

关键词: 研究进展, 研究进展

Abstract: Fertilizer is an important measure for sustainable development of agriculture, fertilizers role in guarding the safety of our food is put into the other factors of production are not a substitute for, grasp the stimulation effect of chemical fertilizers from the guidance of agricultural production and to determine the scientific and effective fertilization programs have important theoretical and practical significance. This paper analyzed the chemical fertilizer use and food production relationship, selected the sown area of grain crops, the total power of agricultural machinery, the effective irrigation area, the amount of chemical fertilizer and agricultural workers for China's grain yield affecting factors. By using the principal component regression C-D production function model, calculated the input of chemical fertilizer on grain output elasticity and contribution rate. The results showed that: the use of chemical fertilizer and grain yield between strong positive correlation; 1978-2010 years of fertilizer on grain yield growth elasticity value was 0.18, the contribution rate was 20.79%, chemical fertilizer on increasing grain output elasticity and contribution and the results of previous studied phase decreased slightly, per unit mass of chemical fertilizer input to bring the actual grain yield increase the quantity decreases somewhat, but chemical fertilizer input was still an important factor in the increase of grain yield.