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中国农学通报 ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (22): 74-78.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-0209

所属专题: 农业气象

• 林学 园艺 园林 • 上一篇    下一篇

桂花花期气象预报研究

王存真 唐广田 白先达   

  • 收稿日期:2014-01-20 修回日期:2014-03-15 出版日期:2014-08-05 发布日期:2014-08-05

Study on Prediction of Osmanthus fragrans Flowering Date

  • Received:2014-01-20 Revised:2014-03-15 Online:2014-08-05 Published:2014-08-05

摘要: 为了更准确地提供桂花开花期的预报,利用桂林市近15年的始花期观测资料,普查分析气象原因,挑选气象因子,用统计分析方法,建立预报模式。结果表明,温度、湿度、日照、降水对桂花开花期有明显影响;影响桂花花期的原因比较复杂,在实际进行花期预报时,根据时间提前的长短,又可以分为长期预报和短期预报,长期预报又为气候预测,只是花期偏早或偏迟的趋势预测,短期预报则是临近开花前1周的预报。长期预报模式和短期预报模式在2013年的业务应用中取得了较好的效果。

关键词: 同源多倍体, 同源多倍体, 基因组大小, 基因表达, 同源多倍体, 基因组大小, 基因表达

Abstract: In order to provide forecast of Osmanthus flowering period, the author used nearly 15 years of flowering observation data in Guilin, the forecast model was established by selected meteorological factors. The results showed that: the temperature, humidity, sunlight and rainfall had obvious effects on Osmanthus flowering. The influence cause of Osmanthus flowering was more complex. In the actual work of flowering forecast, according to the length of time in advance before flower, it could be divided into long-term forecast and short-term forecast. Long-term forecast was climate prediction, just a trend prediction of flowering late or early. Short-term forecasting was a forecast that make at 1 week before the flowering. Long-term forecasting and short-term forecasting model had achieved good effect in application in 2013.