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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (33): 56-59.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-0566

所属专题： 水稻； 农业气象

• 农学 农业基础科学 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于气候适宜指数的湖南早稻产量动态预报

帅细强   

  1. 湖南省气象科学研究所
  • 收稿日期:2014-03-05 修回日期:2014-11-11 接受日期:2014-09-29 出版日期:2015-01-08 发布日期:2015-01-08
  • 通讯作者: 帅细强
  • 基金资助:
    中国气象局公益性行业科研专项“中国主要农作物产量动态预报技术方法研究”(GYHY201206022)；中国气象局公益性行业科研专项“超级稻超高产栽培气象保障技术研究”(GYHY201206020)；湖南省气象局重大项目“现代农业气象业务服务综合平台研究”

Dynamic Forecasting for Early Rice Yield Based on Climatic Suitability Index in Hunan

  • Received:2014-03-05 Revised:2014-11-11 Accepted:2014-09-29 Online:2015-01-08 Published:2015-01-08

摘要： 早稻生长发育和产量形成过程与气象条件密切相关，开展早稻产量动态预报对湖南农业生产和粮食安全具有重要意义。从湖南早稻生长发育的上限温度、最适温度、下限温度、需水量、需光特性等生物学特性出发，建立湖南早稻气候适宜度模型，采用权重系数的方法构建湖南早稻气候适宜指数。选取15个代表站点，统计分析1961—2009年不同时段湖南早稻气候适宜指数与产量丰歉值的关系，建立了基于气候适宜指数的湖南早稻产量动态预报模型，并从模型预测值与实测值增减趋势一致的样本百分率、预报准确率等方面进行回代检验。利用2010—2012年资料进行外推检验。检验结果表明，建立的预报时间为4月30日、5月20日和6月20日的基于气候适宜指数的湖南早稻产量预报模型预报值与实测值增减趋势一致的样本百分率为64%~73%，预报准确率平均为94.7%~96.3%。研究结果表明，建立的基于气候适宜指数的早稻产量动态预报模型，能够满足湖南早稻产量预报业务服务的需要。

关键词: 菲油果, 菲油果, 自然越冬, 生理指标, 抗寒性

Abstract: Early rice growth and yield form are closely related to meteorological conditions. It is a great significance for agricultural production and food security by unfolding early rice yield dynamic forecast in Hunan. The climatic suitability model was established from the maximum temperature and the optimum temperature and the minimum temperature and water demand and optical characteristics of early rice in Hunan. The climatic suitability index was built by using the method of different weighted integration in Hunan. The author selected 15 representative stations, the climatic suitability index of the early rice were calculated in different times from 1961 to 2012 in Hunan. The relationship between the climatic suitability index in different times and the value of yields for bumper or poor harvest of the early rice was analyzed from 1961 to 2009 in Hunan. The dynamic forecasting model of early rice yield based on climatic suitability index was established. They were fitted testing in the sample percentage of consistency of change tendency between the forecasting yields and the observations and the forecasting accuracy. They were extrapolated testing by using the data from 2010 to 2012. The testing results showed that the value of the forecasting model for early rice yield based on climatic suitability index on April 30 and May 20 and June 20 was 64%-73% in the sample percentage of consistency of change tendency between the forecasting yields and the observations and the value was 94.7%-96.3% in the forecasting accuracy. The research results showed that the dynamic forecasting model for early rice yield based on climatic suitability index were able to meet the needs of the early rice yield forecasting services in Hunan.