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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (12): 279-284.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-2450

所属专题： 农业地理； 耕地保护

• 农业科技信息 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于CA-Markov的土地利用变化及预测研究——以巩义市鲁庄镇为例

霍明明,张轶莹,陈伟强   

  1. (河南农业大学资源与环境学院,郑州 450002）
  • 收稿日期:2014-09-10 修回日期:2015-04-02 接受日期:2014-12-24 出版日期:2015-05-06 发布日期:2015-05-06
  • 通讯作者: 陈伟强
  • 基金资助:
    河南省教育厅科技攻关项目“基于生态文明视角的土地利用规划方案预评估与模拟优化技术研究”(14B630002)。

The Land Use Change and Prediction Based on CA-Markov Model:A Case of Luzhuang Town, Gongyi City

A Case of Luzhuang Town, Gongyi City   

  1. Huo Mingming, Zhang Yiying, Chen Weiqiang(College of Recourse & Environment, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002)
  • Received:2014-09-10 Revised:2015-04-02 Accepted:2014-12-24 Online:2015-05-06 Published:2015-05-06

摘要： 土地利用变化模拟是当今土地利用变化研究中的前沿和热点，合理的预测能为规划决策提供科学的依据。通过对鲁庄镇1987年、2000年和2013年3期遥感影像进行判读和解译，在此基础上结合土地利用转移矩阵、动态度、年均变化率分析土地利用时空变化特征。采用CA-Markov模型对2013年土地利用格局进行模拟，模拟结果的面积误差平均为15.3%，总体空间精度达到81.1%，有较高的置信度。再利用该模型对鲁庄镇2026年土地利用格局进行模拟。结果显示：2026年土地利用类型变化较明显，耕地、未利用地持续减少，但减少速率变缓。农村居民点继续缓慢增长，林地有小幅增加。建设用地增加主要是通过占用耕地实现。因此，需要政府在土地利用总体规划指导下，加强对耕地的保护，限制盲目无节制的建设占用耕地，对林地加强生态保育，以促进社会、经济、生态协调发展。

关键词: 农药残留, 农药残留, 快速检测, 酶抑制, 免疫分析, 生物传感器

Abstract: The simulation of land use change is the frontier and hot issue in the study of land use change nowadays, and reasonable prediction is a key means of planning decisions. The author made an interpretation and explanation about the three satellite images of Luzhuang Town in the year of 1987, 2000 and 2013, based on which the spatial and temporal features of land use change were analyzed by means of the transfer matrix of land use, dynamic degree and annual change rate. The CA-Markov model was used to simulate the land use pattern in 2013. The average error of area in the simulation result was 15.3%, and the overall spatial accuracy reached 81.1%, so it could be seen that the confidence was high. The land use pattern of Luzhuang Town in 2026 was also simulated by the same model. It was found that the change of land use types were obvious, and both the cultivated land and unutilized land continued to decline, with a slow reducing speed though; rural residential areas continued to grow slowly, and forest land also increased slightly; the increase of construction land was mainly achieved by occupying cultivated land. Therefore, guided by the general land use planning, the government should strengthen the protection of cultivated land, restrict the blind and unlimited occupation of the cultivated land for construction, and reinforce the ecological conservation of forest land, so as to promote a harmonious development of society, economy and ecology.