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中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (35): 198-203.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15070098

所属专题: 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

滁州市近50年气温和降水变化特征

龚年祖,胡姗姗,金华星,郭黎,张鑫童   

  1. 滁州市气象局,滁州市气象局,滁州市气象局,黄冈市气象局,滁州市气象局
  • 收稿日期:2015-07-18 修回日期:2015-08-01 接受日期:2015-08-18 出版日期:2015-12-18 发布日期:2015-12-18
  • 通讯作者: 龚年祖
  • 基金资助:
    安徽省气象科技发展基金“滁州市短期温度降水多模式集成预报”(KM201404)

Variation of Temperature and Precipitation in Chouzhou City during 1961~2013

  • Received:2015-07-18 Revised:2015-08-01 Accepted:2015-08-18 Online:2015-12-18 Published:2015-12-18

摘要: 为探究气候变化下滁州市近50 a气温和降水量变化特征。[方法]运用趋势分析法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验法和小波分析法探究了1961~2013年滁州市气温和降水的年代际变化特征、突变特征和周期特征。[结果]主要结论如下:(1)过去53年,滁州市年平均气温呈明显的增加趋势,气候倾向率为0.26℃/10a;其中春季气温增势最明显,冬季和秋季次之,夏季气温略有增势。年降水量也呈明显的增加趋势,气候倾向率为15.60mm/10a;其中夏季和冬季降水量呈增加趋势,而春季和秋季降水量呈减少趋势。(2)年平均气温在2001年发生增加突变,年降水量在1986年发生增加突变;年平均气温存在17a的主周期,年降水量存在17a左右的主周期和7~8a次周期。(3)气温和降水量呈明显的负相关。[结论]全球变化下,滁州市气温和降水量均呈增加趋势。

关键词: 假色槭, 假色槭, 种子, 透水性, 内源抑制物质

Abstract: In order to investigate variation of precipitation and temperature in Chouzho City during 1961- 2013, based on the methods of trend analysis, Mann-Kendall non parametric test and wavelet analysis, the inter-annual, inter-decadal and seasonal variation of temperature and precipitation in Chouzhou City were analyzed. The results indicated that the annual and seasonal temperature exhibited a significantly increasing trend with the rate of 0.26℃/10 a. (1) The increasing trend of temperature was the strongest in spring, strong in winter and autumn, slighter in summer. Obviously, the annual precipitation also exhibited a significantly increasing trend with the rate of 15.60 mm/10 a, the precipitation in summer and winter exhibited an increasing trend, whereas, the precipitation in spring and autu mn exhibited a decreasing trend. (2) The annual temperature had an abrupt increase in 2001, and the annual precipitation had an abrupt increase in 1986. Wavelet analysis indicated that the annual temperature had a 17- year periodic cycle and the annual precipitation had a 17-year primary periodic cycle and a secondary periodic cycle of 7-8 years. (3) Cross wavelet analysis indicated that the annual precipitation had a significantly negative correlation with annual temperature. The temperature and precipitation in Chuzhou City all presented the increasing trend under the global climate change.

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