关键词: 粮食生产, 粮食生产, 可持续发展能力, 多元线性回归分析, 灰色模型, 重庆市

Abstract: Based on the monitoring data of typical greenhouse and the observation data of 6 weather stations from 1980 to 2014 in eastern Hexi corridor, the authors used information diffusion theory and risk assessment method to analyze the freezing damage caused by low temperature on facility agriculture. The results showed that the low temperature had great influence on greenhouse crops. When the outside temperature of the greenhouse was minus 17.5℃ and minus 14.5℃, the cucumber and tomato would suffer freezing damage. The characteristics of extreme minimum temperature were high intensity, high frequency, wide covering range, great amplitude of variation, and easily inducing freezing damage. At the same level, the frequency of the lowest temperature appeared in an order from small to large as: Liangzhou, Gulang, Minqin, Yongchang, Wushoaling, Tianzhu. For different levels, the strength of the lowest temperature from small to large was in an order as: Liangzhou, Gulang, Minqin, Yongchang, Tianzhu, Wushaoling. There was a certain risk in the study area from minus 15℃ to minus 33℃, the lowest temperature risk value of the Wushaoling mountain was higher than that in the central part of the oasis and the northern desert, and the lowest temperature risk value of the northern desert area was higher than that in the central part of the oasis. As for the risk index distribution, risk indexes of Liangzhou and Gulang were mild, the risk indexes of Minqin and Yongchang were moderate, while the risk indexes of Tianzhu and Wushaoling were high. The conclusion can provide scientific basis for the production layout of the local facility agriculture and the utilization of climatic resources.