气候变化对中国粮食生产的影响

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2020-0402

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

气候变化对中国粮食生产的影响已得到高度关注,并形成了诸多研究成果,但影响的评估结果存在一定的争议。笔者对21世纪以来百篇国内外相关高质量文献进行整合梳理,总结讨论了气候变化对中国粮食生产的影响。研究表明：（1）1961年以来气候变化主要通过影响作物生长发育、引起种植结构改变、导致农业病虫害和气象灾害加剧的方式影响了中国的粮食生产,影响结果正负共存,总体上呈负效应,且气温升高的负效应最为显著。（2）气候变化对粮食生产的影响存在地域差异,在东北、西北绿洲等高纬度地区,气温升高改善了区域热量条件,粮食产量有增加趋势;在华北平原、南方稻区、西南地区和西北旱作区,气温升高缩短了作物生育期,加上降水变化,导致区域的粮食产量下降。（3）不考虑CO₂肥效作用,未来气候变化很可能造成粮食产量下降,且小麦的减产幅度可能高于水稻和玉米;考虑CO₂肥效作用,负面影响将会减弱,并可能对东北地区的水稻和华北平原的小麦产生正面影响。

关键词: 气候变化, 粮食生产, 影响, 地域差异, CO₂肥效作用, 文献梳理

Abstract:

The impact of climate change on grain production in China has been highly concerned, and a lot of researches have been formed. However, the evaluation results of the impact are somewhat controversial. By studying 100 relevant high-quality literature at home and abroad since the beginning of the 21^st century, the impacts of climate change on China’s grain production were summarized and discussed. The results show that: (1) since 1961, climate change has influenced China’s grain production mainly by affecting the crop growth, changing the cropping structure, and causing the intensification of agricultural diseases and pests and meteorological disasters, the impact is both positive and negative, but the overall effect is negative, and the negative effect is mainly caused by the temperature increase; (2) the impact of climate change on grain production varies in different regions, in the high latitudes such as China’s northeast region and northwest oasis, the increase of temperature has improved the regional heat condition and also the grain production; in the North China Plain, the rice planting areas in south China, the southwest China and the dry farming areas in northwest China, the increase of temperature has shortened the crop growth period, and combined with the change of precipitation, the climate change has led to the decline of grain production; (3) without considering the fertilizer effect of CO₂, future climate change is likely to cause the decrease of grain production, and the decrease of wheat production might be more than that of rice and maize production; considering the fertilizer effect of CO₂, the negative effect of climate change would be weakened, and the impact of climate change on rice production in northeast China and wheat production in North China Plain might be positive.

Key words: climate change, grain production, impact, regional difference, fertilizer effect of CO₂, literature review

中图分类号:

陈源源. 气候变化对中国粮食生产的影响[J]. 中国农学通报, 2021, 37(12): 51-57.

Chen Yuanyuan. The Impact of Climate Change on China’s Grain Production[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2021, 37(12): 51-57.

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