关键词: 珠三角地区, 珠三角地区, 池塘, 浮游动物, 生物量, 水环境因子

Abstract: The paper aims to conduct a quantitative assess of the effect of climate change on wheat yield, and provide references for building climate adapting production models. Based on the climate change trend obtained by using moving method and linear regression, the correlation between the key climate factors and wheat yield was analyzed, and the climate yield and technique yield of wheat were also analyzed by using standard period. The results showed that: the abrupt change of air temperature and precipitation happened in Baoji in 1991 while it also had seasonal differences, the abrupt change of air temperature and precipitation happened earlier in spring and autumn than that in summer and winter; the air temperature had an increasing trend in Baoji, the rising rate was 0.15℃/10 a, especially in winter; precipitation had a decreasing trend, the decreasing rate was 15.4 mm/10 a; the decreasing precipitation in summer and autumn made the greatest contribution; the correlation coefficient was 0.67 between temperature in spring and climate yield of wheat, the climate yield was increasing at rate of 27.5 kg/(hm2·10 a). The climate in BaoJi was becoming warmer and drier in recent 54 years. Under the condition of adequate irrigation, temperature rising had an important effect on wheat yield increase.