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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2024, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (29): 103-112.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2024-0074

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

1971—2020年松嫩平原易旱区气象因子与粮食作物的关系探究

陈畅1(), 刘兴丽2, 姜丽霞3, 娄德君4(), 王永超1, 祝玉梅1, 李诣1, 李雯婧1   

  1. 1 齐齐哈尔市气象局，黑龙江齐齐哈尔 161006
    2 黑龙江省气象数据中心，哈尔滨 150030
    3 黑龙江省气象科学研究所，哈尔滨 150030
    4 黑龙江省气候中心，哈尔滨 150030
  • 收稿日期:2024-01-25 修回日期:2024-08-14 出版日期:2024-10-15 发布日期:2024-10-14
  • 通讯作者:
    娄德君，女，1973年出生，江苏邳州人，正研级高工，硕士，研究方向为气候诊断与预测。通信地址：150030 黑龙江省哈尔滨市香坊区电碳路71号 黑龙江省气候中心，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    陈畅，女，1999年出生，黑龙江龙江人，助理工程师，学士，研究方向为应用气象学。通信地址：161006 黑龙江省齐齐哈尔市建华区党校街68号 齐齐哈尔市气象局，Tel：0452-2712385，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目“东北玉米水稻低温冷害监测评估及预警预测研究”(2022YFD2300201)

Study on Relationship Between Meteorological Factors and Grain Crops in Drought-Prone Areas of Songnen Plain from 1971 to 2020

CHEN Chang1(), LIU Xingli2, JIANG Lixia3, LOU Dejun4(), WANG Yongchao1, ZHU Yumei1, LI Yi1, LI Wenjing1   

  1. 1 Qiqihar Meteorological Bureau, Qiqihar, Heilongjiang 161006
    2 Meteorological Data Center of Heilongjiang Province, Harbin 150030
    3 Heilongjiang Province Institute of Meteorological Science, Harbin 150030
    4 Heilongjiang Climate Center, Harbin 150030
  • Received:2024-01-25 Revised:2024-08-14 Published:2024-10-15 Online:2024-10-14

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摘要：

为探究松嫩平原易旱区气温、降水变化对粮食作物玉米和水稻的影响，基于1971—2020年齐齐哈尔市10个气象站点气温、降水、产量资料，运用线性趋势拟合、多元线性回归和R/S分析法，分析了研究区作物生长季气温、降水长期变化趋势，构建气象因子与玉米、水稻气象产量的关系模型，探索气温、降水未来变化趋势。结果表明：1971—2020年，研究区作物生长季及各月平均气温、最低气温总体呈上升趋势，最高气温变化不显著；生长季降水量显著增加，各月降水量呈微弱波动上升趋势；生长季及各月气温异常或接近异常偏冷（暖）年份共27 a，冷年主要集中于1970s—1980s，暖年主要出现在21世纪，降水异常或接近异常偏多（少）年份共24 a，主要出现于1990s以后；7月平均气温及8月最低气温、最高气温、降水量与玉米气象产量存在相关性(p<0.05)，7月最低气温及9月最高气温、最低气温、降水量与水稻气象产量存在相关性(p<0.05)，表明盛夏至初秋温水条件显著影响玉米和水稻产量形成；未来研究区作物生长季气温、降水条件继续呈暖湿化趋势，玉米、水稻对本地气候资源的利用仍有较大空间。

关键词: Hurst指数, 气温、降水时空分布, 齐齐哈尔, 松嫩平原, 易旱区, 玉米, 水稻

Abstract:

To explore the effects of temperature and precipitation changes on corn and rice in drought-prone areas of Songnen Plain, based on the data of temperature, precipitation and yield from 10 meteorological stations in Qiqihar City during 1971 to 2020, the long-term change trends of temperature and precipitation in the growing season of crops in the study area were analyzed by using linear trend fitting, multiple linear regression and R/S analysis. And the relationship model between meteorological factors and meteorological yield of maize and rice was established, the future change trends of temperature and precipitation were explored. Results showed that during 1971-2020 growing season, monthly average temperature and minimum temperature showed an increasing trend, while the maximum temperature had no significant change. The precipitation in the growing season increased significantly, and the monthly precipitation showed a slight fluctuation upward trend. The number of years with abnormal or close to abnormal cold (warm) during the growing season and each month was 27 years, the cold years were mainly concentrated in the 1970s to 1980s, the warm years were mainly in the 21st century. And the number of years with abnormal or close to abnormal precipitation was 24 years, mainly in the 1990s. The minimum temperature, the maximum temperature and the precipitation in August and the mean temperature in July were correlated with the meteorological yield of maize (P<0.05). The maximum temperature, the minimum temperature and the precipitation in September and the minimum temperature in July were correlated with the meteorological yield of rice (P<0.05). The results indicated that the water and heat conditions from midsummer to early autumn significantly influenced the yield formation of maize and rice. In the future, the temperature and precipitation conditions of crop growing season in the study area will continue to show a warm and humid trend, and there is still a large space for the utilization of local climate resources by maize and rice.

Key words: Hurst index, spatial and temporal distribution of temperature and precipitation, Qiqihar, Songnen Plain, drought-prone areas, corn, rice