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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2026, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (6): 127-132.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2025-0565

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

胡柚气候品质模型构建及等级评价

丁丽华1(), 童监萍2, 吴群3, 王同亮4, 顾振海1()   

  1. 1 衢州市气象局， 浙江衢州 324000
    2 常山县气象局， 浙江常山 324200
    3 衢州市农业林业科学研究院， 浙江衢州 324000
    4 开化县气象局， 浙江开化 324300
  • 收稿日期:2025-07-04 修回日期:2025-12-23 出版日期:2026-03-25 发布日期:2026-03-30
  • 通讯作者:
    顾振海，男，1986年出生，高级工程师，本科，研究方向：天气预报与气象灾害。通信地址：324000 衢州市柯城区古田路121号 衢州市气象局，Tel：0570-3670085，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    丁丽华，女，1984年出生，高级工程师，本科，研究方向：生态和农业气象。Tel：0570-3032961，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    常山县科技研发和成果转化项目（社会发展类）“胡柚气候品质评价模型构建”(2025C03)

Construction and Grading Evaluation of Climate Quality Model for Huyou

DING Lihua1(), TONG Jianping2, WU Qun3, WANG Tongliang4, GU Zhenhai1()   

  1. 1 Quzhou Meteorological Bureau, Quzhou, Zhejiang 324000
    2 Changshan Meteorological Bureau, Changshan, Zhejiang 324200
    3 Quzhou Agricultural and Forestry Science Research Institute, Quzhou, Zhejiang 324000
    4 Kaihua Meteorological Bureau, Kaihua, Zhejiang 324300
  • Received:2025-07-04 Revised:2025-12-23 Published:2026-03-25 Online:2026-03-30

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摘要：

本研究旨在定量化评估气象条件对常山胡柚品质的影响。利用2018—2023年胡柚品质数据和相应气象数据，采用了相关分析法和逐步回归法，筛选出影响胡柚品质的气象因子。结合加权指数法和专家经验法，建立了胡柚气候品质评价模型。通过对1971—2023年气候品质评价指数进行K均值聚类，划分了气候品质等级，并运用该模型对常山县近6 a的胡柚气候品质进行评价和检验。结果表明：影响胡柚气候品质的关键气象因子主要为10月下旬—11月中旬的阴雨日数、日照时数、平均气温日较差，以及7—8月的降水量和5月下旬—10月中旬的最长连续高温日数。基于气候品质评价指数(IACQ)的聚类结果，将胡柚气候品质划分为三级，其中IACQ≥2.48为特级，1.64≤IACQ<2.48为一级，IACQ<1.64为二级及以下。近6 a数据显示，常山县胡柚的气候品质评价指数介于1.7~2.7，以特级和一级为主。从空间分布来看，特级胡柚主要分布在常山县东部乡镇，如青石镇、东案乡、大桥头乡、招贤镇等主要种植区域。本研究揭示，胡柚的5个关键气象因子与温州蜜柑在果实品质形成关键期的气象响应机制存在显著差异，强调柑橘气候品质评价需遵循品种特异性原则。所建立的胡柚品质评价指标和模型具备一定的实用性和可靠性，为开展胡柚气候品质认证奠定了基础。

关键词: 胡柚, 气候品质, 评价模型, 等级, 空间分布

Abstract:

The study is conducted to quantitatively evaluate the impact of meteorological conditions on the quality of Changshan Huyou. Based on Huyou quality data and corresponding meteorological data from 2018 to 2023, correlation analysis and stepwise regression methods were employed to identify meteorological factors affecting Huyou quality. A climate quality evaluation model for Huyou was established using the weighted index method and expert empirical method. By applying this model, K-means clustering analysis was conducted on climate quality evaluation indices spanning the period from 1971 to 2023, enabling the classification of Huyou quality grades. The model was further utilized to evaluate and validate the climate quality of Huyou in Changshan County over the past six years. The results revealed that the key meteorological factors affecting the climate quality of Huyou include: the number of rainy days from late October to mid-November, sunshine duration during the same period, daily temperature range from late October to mid-November, precipitation from July to August, and the maximum consecutive high-temperature days from late May to mid-October. The clustering results based on the Climatic Quality Index (IACQ) classify the climatic quality of Huyou into three grades: Premium (IACQ≥2.48), First Grade (1.64≤IACQ<2.48), and Second Grade or below (IACQ<1.64). Over the past 6 years, the climate quality evaluation index of Huyou in Changshan County ranged between 1.7 and 2.7, with the majority classified as "Special Grade" or "First Grade". Spatially, Special Grade pomelos were predominantly distributed in eastern townships of Changshan County, including Qingshi Town, Dong’an Township, Daqiaotou Township, and Zhaoxian Town—the key cultivation areas. This study reveals that the response mechanisms of the five key meteorological factors for Changshanhuyou differ significantly from those of Satsuma mandarin during the critical phases of fruit quality development. Consequently, climate quality evaluation for citrus should adhere to the principle of varietal specificity. The established evaluation indicators and model demonstrated practical applicability and reliability, laying the foundation for climate quality certification of Huyou.

Key words: Huyou, climate quality, evaluation model, grade, spatial distribution