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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2026, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (20): 104-109.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2026-0142

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变暖背景下双季晚稻气候利弊分析和优选播期研究——以绍兴市柯桥区为例

丁金阳1(), 肖晶晶2(), 李正泉2, 金亮3, 周晓燕1, 冯博1, 章永辉1, 张立波4, 何靓1   

  1. 1 浙江省绍兴市柯桥气象局， 浙江绍兴 312030
    2 浙江省气候中心， 杭州 310057
    3 浙江省绍兴市柯桥区农业水产技术推广站， 浙江绍兴 312030
    4 浙江省绍兴市气象局， 浙江绍兴 312000
  • 收稿日期:2026-02-03 修回日期:2026-06-25 出版日期:2026-10-25 发布日期:2026-10-26
  • 通讯作者:
    肖晶晶，男，1984年出生，湖南邵阳人，高级工程师，硕士，主要从事农业气象与气象灾害方面的研究。通信地址：310057 浙江省杭州市滨江区国慷街256号 浙江省气候中心，Tel：0571-86509672，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    丁金阳，男，1967年出生，浙江绍兴人，高级工程师，本科，主要从事农业气象观测方面的研究。通信地址：312030 浙江省绍兴市柯桥区群贤路762号 绍兴市柯桥区气象局，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    浙江省自然科学基金项目“基于气象大数据的浙江杂交稻制种复合高温热害预警模型构建与应用示范”(LMS26D050003); 浙江省基础公益研究计划项目“浙江极端降水历史与未来变化及其对海水缺氧影响研究”(LZJMZ23D050001); “气候变化背景下浙江省寒冷事件时空变化特征及其对农业生产的潜在影响研究”(LGF22D050007); 浙江省气象科技项目“基于星地一体的浙江水稻高温热害监测评估技术研究与应用”(2022ZD07)

Analysis of Climatic Advantages and Disadvantages and Optimal Sowing Date for Double-cropping Late Rice Under Climate Warming: A Case Study of Keqiao District, Shaoxing City

DING Jinyang1(), XIAO Jingjing2(), LI Zhengquan2, JIN Liang3, ZHOU Xiaoyan1, FENG Bo1, ZHANG Yonghui1, ZHANG Libo4, HE Liang1   

  1. 1 Keqiao District Meteorological Bureau of Shaoxing City, Shaoxing, Zhejiang 312030
    2 Zhejiang Climate Center, Hangzhou 310057
    3 Shaoxing Keqiao District Agricultural and Aquatic Technology Extension Station, Shaoxing, Zhejiang 312030
    4 Shaoxing Meteorological Bureau, Shaoxing, Zhejiang 312000
  • Received:2026-02-03 Revised:2026-06-25 Published:2026-10-25 Online:2026-10-26

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摘要：

为精确评估气候变暖对双季晚稻种植的影响，本研究基于绍兴市柯桥区1981—2024年的气象资料，对不同播期双季晚稻各生育阶段的气候变化和利弊进行了分析研究，并提出了最优播期建议。结果表明：（1）与1981—2000年相比，2001—2024年双季晚稻的营养生长期气温升高，抽穗扬花期的秋季低温风险显著降低，灌浆成熟期的适宜温度时段延长，但拔节孕穗期高温热害风险有所增加。（2）7月上旬为最优播期，在该播期，双季晚稻的孕穗期能有效规避高温热害，抽穗期面临的秋季低温风险极低，灌浆期温度条件较佳，且可匹配当地早稻最大规模的收割和机械化插秧；6月下旬为次优播期，虽然该播期孕穗期的高温热害风险较高，但其抽穗期秋季低温风险低，灌浆期温度条件最佳，且可匹配早稻较大规模的收割和机械化插秧；7月中旬不宜作为主推播期，原因在于其孕穗期虽高温热害风险低，但抽穗期面临最高的秋季低温风险，灌浆期温度条件最差，并且只能匹配早稻零星规模的收割和机械化插秧。本研究为柯桥区及类似双季稻区优化播期布局提供了定量化依据。

关键词: 双季晚稻, 播期, 气候适宜性, 高温热害, 秋季低温, 气候变暖

Abstract:

To identify the impact of climate warming on double-cropping late rice, this study evaluated the climatic advantages and disadvantages at different growth stages of late rice with three sowing dates (late June, early July, and mid-July) based on meteorological data from 1981 to 2024 in Keqiao District, Shaoxing City. The results indicated that compared with the period 1981-2000, during 2001-2024, the temperature during the vegetative growth stage of late rice increased, the duration of suitable temperature during the grain filling and ripening stage extended, and the risk of chilling damage during the heading and flowering stage in autumn decreased significantly. However, the risk of high temperature stress during the jointing and booting stage increased. Early July was identified as the optimal sowing window, as it could effectively avoid high temperature at the booting stage and chilling damage at the heading stage, while providing suitable or relatively suitable temperature conditions for grain filling. This sowing date also was best aligned with the local large-scale harvest period of early rice (mid-July). Late June was the suboptimal sowing date, requiring precautions against high temperature at the booting stage, but it coordinated well with the early rice harvest period in early July. Mid-July was not recommended due to the high risk of autumn chilling damage during the heading stage, insufficient temperature during the late grain filling period, and low benefits in farming schedule coordination. This study provides a quantitative basis for optimizing the sowing date arrangement in Keqiao District and analogous double-cropping rice regions.

Key words: double-cropping late rice, sowing date, climatic suitability, high temperature stress, autumn low temperature, climate warming

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