欢迎访问《中国农学通报》，
中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2011, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (13): 242-248.

所属专题： 农业气象

• 林学 园艺 园林 • 上一篇    下一篇

塑料大棚小气候特征及预报模型的研究

符国槐 张波 杨再强 黄海静 孙军波   

  • 收稿日期:2010-12-27 修回日期:2011-02-15 出版日期:2011-06-05 发布日期:2011-06-05
  • 基金资助:

    公益性行业（气象）科研专项设施农业及特色农产品气象保障关键技术研究

Research on the Microclimate Characteristics and inside Temperature Prediction Model for Strawberry Plastic Greenhouse

  • Received:2010-12-27 Revised:2011-02-15 Online:2011-06-05 Published:2011-06-05

PDF (PC)

1057

摘要：

为揭示塑料大棚室内气象要素季节变化和日变化规律，建立一个适合本地的塑料大棚小气候预报模型，本研究以浙江省慈溪市草莓塑料大棚为研究对象，收集2007年12月—2008年4月大棚内外气象数据，系统研究温室内外温度、湿度的季节变化和日变化特征，分析室内与室外的最高、最低气温的关系。研究表明，室内的气温、相对湿度明显高于室外，室内与室外的最高温度相差5~10℃，最低温度相差3~6℃。室内空气温度与相对湿度成线性负相关。在此基础上，建立基于逐步回归方法的温室内空气温度预报模型，并利用独立数据检验，结果表明模型对冬季和春季的逐时气温预报值与实测值基于1:1线的决定系数（R2）分别为0.912、0.887；标准回归统计误差（RMSE）分别为2.3℃和2.7℃，该研究结果可为慈溪市设施农业环境调控及小气候预报提供支持。

关键词: 土地利用, 土地利用, 集约评价, 指标体系, 南城县

Abstract:

This study aimed to reveal the seasonal and daily variation rule of meteorological elements inside plastic greenhouse and to establish a microclimate forecast model. The meteorological data inside and outside the strawberry plastic greenhouse was collected in Cixi, Zhejiang province, from 2007 to 2008, to study the seasonal and diurnal variation of air temperature and relative humidity in the greenhouse. The relationship between outside and inside daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature were analyzed systematically. The results showed that both the daily maximum temperature and the daily minimum temperature in the greenhouse were higher than that out of the greenhouse, with differences of 5~10℃ and 3~6℃, respectively, for maximum temperature and minimum temperature. The air temperature inside the greenhouse was found to negatively correlate to the relative humidity. Based on these analyses, a temperature prediction model for strawberry plastic greenhouse was developed using stepwise regression method. The verification results from independent experimental data indicated that the R2 between the predicted and observed hourly temperature was 0.912 and 0.887, respectively, for winter and spring. The corresponding RMSE was 2.3℃ and 2.7℃, respectively, for winter and spring. The results of this study can be used to supply support for microclimate forecast and control in plastic greenhouse.