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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2024, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (2): 102-106.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0078

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

石河子棉花生长关键期与产量动态预报研究

苏朝丞1(), 葛怡成1, 谢葭颖2, 许浩翊3(), 王啸天3   

  1. 1 新疆天山区气象局，乌鲁木齐 830001
    2 乌鲁木齐市气象局，乌鲁木齐 830000
    3 石河子气象局，新疆石河子832000
  • 收稿日期:2023-01-15 修回日期:2023-03-25 出版日期:2024-01-10 发布日期:2024-01-10
  • 通讯作者:
    许浩翊，男，1990年出生，新疆塔城人，工程师，硕士研究生，主要从事综合气象观测业务研究。通信地址：832000 新疆石河子气象局，Tel：0991-4888114，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    苏朝丞，男，1990年出生，四川绵阳人，工程师，硕士研究生，主要从事综合气象观测业务及气象服务研究。通信地址：830001 新疆天山区气象局，Tel：0991-2611281，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发任务专项项目“机采棉机艺融合高效关键配套技术及产品研发”(2016B01001-2); 中国沙漠气象科学研究基金“新疆北部光温湿变化的精细化及其对植被的影响”(Sqj2016013)

Study on the Critical Growth Period and Yield Dynamic Forecast of Cotton in Shihezi

SU Chaocheng1(), GE Yicheng1, XIE Jiaying2, XU Haoyi3(), WANG Xiaotian3   

  1. 1 Tianshan District Meteorological Bureau, Urumqi 830001
    2 Urumqi Meteorological Bureau, Urumqi 830000
    3 Shihezi Meteorological Bureau, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000
  • Received:2023-01-15 Revised:2023-03-25 Published-:2024-01-10 Online:2024-01-10

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摘要：

棉花是新疆地区主要经济作物之一，开展棉花产量动态预报对生产安全具有重要意义。利用1968—2020年新疆石河子地区4个地面气象基准站逐日气象资料和棉花产量资料，基于积分回归法在棉花全生育期内以旬为时间尺度，分析了影响棉花生产的温光水主要气象要素和关键期，分别建立了石河子地区7月中旬、8月中旬和9月中旬棉花气象产量动态预报模型。结果表明：气温对新疆石河子棉花产量的影响最大，苗期、开花期和吐絮始期为棉花生长的温度关键期，苗期和吐絮始期为正效应显著，开花期为负效应显著；开花期是棉花生长的光照关键期，对棉花产量呈正效应；石河子地区属于灌溉农业区，自然降水量虽呈正效应，但降水量对棉花产量的影响较小。利用积分回归法建立的动态预报模型对2018—2020年石河子地区棉花产量试报，7月中旬、8月中旬及9月中旬的平均准确率分别为85.1%、91.4%和94.3%。基于积分回归法建立的棉花气象产量动态预报模型越接近成熟期准确率越高。利用积分回归原理对棉花产量进行动态预测是可行的，可以应用于棉花产量预测业务，为地方产量预测提供参考。

关键词: 积分回归法, 棉花, 关键期, 产量, 动态预报

Abstract:

Cotton is one of the main economic crops in Xinjiang, and the dynamic forecast of cotton yield is of great significance for production safety. Using the daily meteorological data and cotton yield data of four ground meteorological reference stations in Shihezi area of Xinjiang from 1968 to 2020, and based on the integral regression method, the main meteorological factors and key periods of temperature, light and water affecting cotton production were analyzed with ten-day as the time scale during the whole growth period of cotton. The dynamic forecast models of cotton meteorological yield in Shihezi area in mid-July, mid-August and mid-September were established. The results showed that temperature had the greatest impact on cotton yield in Shihezi, Xinjiang. The seedling stage, flowering stage and initial stage of boll opening were the key temperature periods for cotton growth. The positive effects were significant at seedling stage and boll opening stage, while the negative effects were significant at flowering stage. The flowering stage was the key period of light for cotton growth, which had a positive effect on cotton yield. Shihezi area was an irrigated agricultural area, although the natural precipitation had a positive effect, the impact of precipitation on cotton yield was small. The dynamic forecast model established by the integral regression method was used to test the cotton yield in Shihezi region from 2018 to 2020, the results showed that the average accuracy rates in mid-July, mid-August and mid-September were 85.1%, 91.4% and 94.3%, respectively. The accuracy of the cotton meteorological yield dynamic forecast model based on integral regression method was higher as it approached the mature stage. It is feasible to use the principle of integral regression to dynamically forecast cotton yield. And it can be applied to cotton yield forecasting business, providing reference for local yield forecast.

Key words: integral regression method, cotton, critical period, yield, dynamic forecast