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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2010, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (19): 306-311.

所属专题： 农业地理； 耕地保护

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

土地利用/植被覆盖动态变化及其预测--以河北省涉县为例

周湘山 孙保平,赵 岩,李锦荣 周文渊,王同顺,王引乾,钟晓娟   

  • 收稿日期:2010-05-06 修回日期:2010-05-24 出版日期:2010-10-05 发布日期:2010-10-05
  • 基金资助:

    国家“十一五”科技支撑项目，国家林业局专题研究项目：中国北方退耕还林工程建设生态功能评价

Study on the change and prediction of the land use/vegetation dynamic—— taking the She county as example

  • Received:2010-05-06 Revised:2010-05-24 Online:2010-10-05 Published:2010-10-05

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摘要：

本文以河北省退耕还林典型县涉县为研究对象，根据1999年和2007年2期TM影像资料和其它辅助资料，分析了涉县土地利用变化、区域差异特征和各类型之间的转化情况，并利用马尔可夫模型对2015年土地利用动态变化趋势进行预测研究。结果表明：河北涉县1999-2007年，因为退耕还林工程的实施，林地和高覆盖草地的面积有较大幅度增加，分别增长了6.41%和5.61%；耕地和中覆盖草地面积有较大幅度降低，分别减少了7.68%和4.60%；可以看出林地，草地和耕地是本地区土地利用变化的主导类型，与其他土地利用类型间的相互转化分布较广。到2015年林地和高覆盖草地持续增加，分别增长了2.00%和1.23%；耕地面积持续降低，减少了3.74%；林地，草地和耕地始终为主要的转化类型，占据主导地位，因此，合理利用与保护该区的林地，草地和耕地资源，是该区生态环境建设的必要途径。

关键词: 木醋液, 木醋液, 农业, 应用, 研究, 进展

Abstract:

Based on the typical county of returning farmland to forest of She county in Hebei province as the research object, according to the two periods of the 1999 and 2007’s TM images and other auxiliary materials, this paper analysised the change of land use, regional difference and the conversion between various types ,and used markov model to predict the dynamic change trend of the land use in 2015. The results showed that:the She county in Hebei province in the period of 1999-2007, the forest land and high cover grassland were greatly increased 6.41% and 5.61% respectively for the implementation of the returning farmland to forest project. Cultivated land and grassland were greatly reduced, and reduced 4.60% and 7.68% respectively. From the result we can see the forest land, grassland and cultivated land were the dominant types of land use change in this area, and they had widely mutual transformation with other types of land use. By 2015, forest land and high cover grassland will be increased the 2.00% and 1.23%. Cultivated area will be reduced steadily by 3.74%. Forest land , cultivated land and grassland are always the dominant types of land use change ,which are the dominant position, therefore, reasonable using and protecting the forest land, grassland and cultivated land resource are the necessary way to construct the ecological environment in She county.