Welcome to Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2013, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (20): 165-169.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2012-3972

Special Issue: 园艺 农业气象

• 23 • Previous Articles     Next Articles

The Effect of Climate Change on Climatic Production Potential of Vegetable in Beibei District

  

  • Received:2012-12-07 Revised:2013-03-14 Online:2013-07-15 Published:2013-07-15

Abstract: In order to maximize the current vegetable production, prompting vegetables sufficient supply and increasing farmers’ income, the author used daily average air temperature, precipitation, meteorological data from 1951 to 2010 in Beibei District, combined with Zhou Guangsheng climate productivity model, calculated the climate production potential of vegetable in Beibei District, on this basis, using linear regression, the mutation of MK, wavelet theory, and analyzed the distribution characteristics of it. The results showed: vegetable climate productivity of Beibei was rising, with periodic oscillation of 2-4 years, 12-13 years, the average annual vegetable productivity was 11412.11 kg/(hm2?a); vegetables climate productivity had obvious mutation, mainly dued to the impact of climate change in Beibei production potential of the pigment precipitation. To establish forecast model of vegetable climatic potential productivity in Beibei, the change trend of vegetable climatic productivity and the actual yield of vegetable simulation were basically the same, when the Beibei climate was warm and dry climate (temperature increased from 3℃, 10% less precipitation) and warm climate, the vegetables grew the most favorable.

CLC Number: