Abstract:

The paper aims to forecast the impact of future climate change on the yields of tobacco. Based on the crop growth model, and combined with the climate change scenario A2 (concentration on the economic development) and B2 (concentration on the sustainable development) of SRES, the response and adaption of flue-cured tobacco planting in Chongqing to climate change are quantitatively simulated. The results show that: the flue-cured tobacco yield will change from -4.7% to 5.7% in 2020 under the A2 scenario with current varieties, with little increase and decrease. There will be a slight increase of flue-cured tobacco yield in Wushan, Qianjiang, Youyang, Nanchuan etc. and a slight decrease in the other regions. Under the B2 scenario, the flue-cured tobacco yield will change from -35.3% to 8.1% in 2020. There will be a slight increase in tobacco growing areas of Wushan, Wuxi, Qianjiang, most parts of Nanchuan and so on, but the other regions will have a diminished output, and Fengjie and Wulong will have a yield decrease above 15%. In 2040, the flue-cured tobacco yield will change from -15.85% to 1.93% under A2 scenario, except for a slight increase in Wanzhou tobacco growing areas, the yield of the rest areas will reduce, and the central part of Youyang and southern Wulong will have a higher reduction rate over 10%. Under the B2 scenario, the flue-cured tobacco yield will change from -14.45% to 8.18%, Youyang, Pengshui and southern Qianjiang will have a yield increase, and the rest areas will have a yield reduction. Either under A2 scenario or B2 scenario, most tobacco growing areas of Chongqing will show different reduction trends, some areas will have a higher reduction rate. If new varieties adapting to climate warming could be introduced in Chongqing (only prolonging the accumulated temperature of the late growth of flue-cured tobacco in the model from flowering to parietal maturity), under the A2 scenario, the flue-cured tobacco yield will increase by 105-170 kg/hm², with an increase rate of 6.9%-10.6%, under the B2 scenario, the flue-cured tobacco yield will increase by 40-78 kg/hm², with an increase rate of 2.5%-5.12%.

Key words: climate change, flue-cured tobacco, yield, impact, adaptation, simulation