Abstract:

This paper analyzed the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics and the evolution of agricultural drought in China from 1949 to 2019 based on three indicators, namely the rate of drought area, disaster and grain loss. The results showed that rate of drought area, disaster and grain loss from 1949 to 2000 increased by 1.72%/10 a, 1.26%/10 a and 0.61%/10 a, respectively. The agricultural drought disaster decreased gradually from 2001 to 2019. From the perspective of decadal changes, the average rate of drought area, disaster and grain loss was 7.4%, 2.4% and 2.3%, respectively in 1950s, which increased to 16.1%, 9.3% and 6.8%, respectively in the early twenty-first century. In terms of spatial distribution, the agricultural drought disaster was more severe in the northeast, northwest and Huang-Huai-Hai region in China, where the rate of drought area and disaster was more than 15% and 10%, respectively. While the drought disaster rate was relatively slow in south China, southwest and the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River region, where the rate of drought area and disaster was lower than 10% and 5%, respectively. Shanxi, Shaanxi, Liaoning, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Gansu and Ningxia were the provinces with more severe agricultural drought disaster. According to agricultural comprehensive drought index, from 1949 to 2019, there were 26 years of severe drought and 13 years of extreme drought in China, indicating that China is a country with frequent agricultural drought disasters. This study also concluded that climate warming, the mismatch between water and soil resources, and human activities were the main drivers of the aggravation of agricultural drought in China.

Key words: agriculture, drought disaster, spatial-temporal characteristics, climate warming, human activities