Abstract:

To study the process of China’s grain production being squeezed by economic development, this study took Guangdong Province, the country’s largest grain sales area, as an example, and used spatial autocorrelation analysis and SDM regression method to conduct spatial econometric analysis of 121 counties, to explore the grain production change and regional evolution in the past 20 years. The results showed that the spatial distribution of grain production in Guangdong was not random; instead, it presented a gradually increasing spatial agglomeration. Regional changes in food production were driven by both labor transfer and capital. On the one hand, food production was still a labor-intensive industry, and the support of agricultural labor to the grain output level was still the main condition for the existence of the main grain production areas in Guangdong; on the other hand, capital’s entry into agriculture had caused geographic transfer of the food industry through push and pull. This study believes that we should highlight the influence of grain production pattern on policy making, and scientifically designate grain production and marketing counties while carefully plan functional areas for the production of grain and important agricultural products.

Key words: crowding out effect, fluctuation coefficient, spatial autocorrelation, spatial disturbance, production and sales area complementarity