Abstract:

To understand the impact of climate change on crop planting in Shanxi Province, based on the temperature grid data from 1961 to 2016, this paper used Mann-Kendall trend/mutation test, coefficient of variation and multiple regression interpolation method to analyze the effective accumulated temperature ≥5℃ and ≥10℃ in Shanxi Province. The results showed that: (1) the effective accumulated temperature of both ≥5℃ and ≥10℃ showed obvious increasing trends in time distribution, and the effective accumulated temperature increased rapidly in northern Shanxi Province and the valleys and basins with low terrain, and the spatial distribution was zonal from northeast to southwest. (2) The effective accumulated temperature of ≥5℃ and ≥10℃ showed decreasing trends from south to north in spatial distribution, and its spatial distribution was greatly affected by altitude. The effective accumulated temperature of ≥5℃ had a larger distribution area in the accumulated temperature range suitable for crop growth, and was more suitable for cold-loving crop cultivation in most areas. (3) The effective accumulated temperature was abruptly changed in 1997, after the change, the northern boundary of accumulated temperature moved to high latitude and high altitude areas. (4) The effective accumulated temperature initial date was mostly advanced, and the end date tended to be delayed. The duration of effective accumulated temperature was extended, and this trend was more obvious in the south of Shanxi Province, valleys and basins. The coefficient of variation of the effective accumulated temperature start date increased from northeast to southwest, and the rate of variation of the initial date of Fenhe Valley was large; the coefficient of variation of the end date was smaller and the distribution was more stable.

Key words: effective accumulative temperature, heat resources, variation characteristics, multiple regression interpolation, comparative analysis, Shanxi Province