关键词: 综合评价, 综合评价

Abstract: In order to study the effects of climate change on winter wheat production, main climate change and its effects during the growth period of winter wheat in Weifang were analyzed, by using the methods of climate change trend rate, cubic polynomial function and linear regression with observational data of growth stages of winter wheat in Weifang in 1981-2010 for 30 years and temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours during the growth stage, to provide the basis on winter wheat planting. The results showed that, average temperature interannual variation during growth stages of winter wheat in Weifang was on the rise, with climate trend rate of 0.24℃ per 10 years; precipitation interannual variability was on the decline, with climate trend rate of -0.49 mm per 10 years; the sunshine hours interannual variability significantly reduced, on average, every 10 years to reduce 50.18 h. The whole growth period of winter wheat significantly shortened, by 0.426 days a year. The seedling, turning-green and grain filling stage shortened, and the overwintering period, jointing and booting stage extended. Climate yield of winter wheat was on the decline, relationship between climate yield and temperature was negative, and relationship between climate yield and precipitation, sunshine hours were positive.