欢迎访问《中国农学通报》,

中国农学通报 ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (31): 23-27.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-2141

所属专题: 园艺 农业气象

• 林学 园艺 园林 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于梨树产量损失的气象灾害评估研究

许彦平   

  1. 甘肃省天水市气象局
  • 收稿日期:2014-08-06 修回日期:2014-08-06 接受日期:2014-09-16 出版日期:2014-11-20 发布日期:2014-11-20
  • 通讯作者: 许彦平
  • 基金资助:
    果树气象灾害风险的综合评估技术和方法研究 (2014-12)。

The Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Based on Pear Yield Loss

  • Received:2014-08-06 Revised:2014-08-06 Accepted:2014-09-16 Online:2014-11-20 Published:2014-11-20

摘要: 灾害评估是一项新型研究课题,特别是多年生果树作物,由于实况调查观测资料极少,许多自然灾害机理尚不明确,评估工作难度很大,气象灾害的风险评估工作仍然处于探索和研究的起步阶段。进行基于梨树产量损失的气象灾害评估研究,可为果树气象灾害风险评估和果业管理部门防御或减轻气象灾害对果树生产的危害,制定救灾措施提供科学依据。利用统计学方法和风险原理,确定了天水渭北旱山区、渭河河谷川区和关山区3个不同小气候类型区,影响梨树产量形成的主要农业气象灾害,构建了基于梨树产量损失的农业气象灾害风险评估模型。天水3个不同小气候类型,影响梨产量形成的主要农业气象灾害以初春3月干旱、伏期7月干旱和花期4月低温冻害最为严重。评估有灾(包括小灾、中灾、大灾、特大灾)年份18年,评估准确率94%。其中,中灾和大灾评估准确率达100%,评估准确率较高,评估效果比较理想,可为多年生果树气象灾害评估研究提供参考,对农业防灾减灾有一定的指导意义。

关键词: 有机肥, 有机肥, 日光温室, 土壤, 全盐, pH值

Abstract: Hazard assessment is a new research topic, especially for the perennial fruit crops, because the data of the actual investigation and observation is very little, many natural disaster mechanisms are still not clear, therefore, the evaluation is very difficult, risk assessment of meteorological disasters is still in the initial stage of exploration and research. Assessment of meteorological disasters based on pear yield loss can provide scientific basis for meteorological disaster risk assessment, prevention and mitigation of meteorological hazard on fruit tree production and formulating the relief measures. Using statistical methods and risk theory, the authors identified three different climate zones, including Weibei Dryland Mountain Area, Weihe river valley plain area and Guanshan Mountain Area in Tianshui, clarified effect of main agricultural meteorological disasters on pear yield formation and built a risk assessment model of agricultural meteorological disaster risk assessment based on the pear yield loss. As to the three different types of microclimate in Tianshui, major severe agricultural meteorological disasters on pear yield formation are: early spring drought in March, summer drought in July and freezing injury in April florescence. Assessment of disaster (including small disaster, secondary disaster, catastrophe and catastrophic disaster) marks 18 a as disaster year and evaluation of accuracy was 94%; among them, assessment accuracy of the secondary disaster and catastrophe reached 100%. The evaluation accuracy is high and the effect is ideal. Study of meteorological disaster assessment can provide reference for perennial fruit trees and have guiding significance for agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation.