气候变化对椰心叶甲在中国适生区的影响

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb20191000735

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为明确椰心叶甲在中国的潜在适生区,降低椰心叶甲入侵造成经济和生态损失,本研究以CLIMEX软件和椰心叶甲的生物学资料为依据,结合ArcGIS反距离加权插值分析功能,利用历史气候数据（1981—2010年）和模拟未来气候数据（2071—2100年）,分析气候变化对椰心叶甲在中国的潜在适生区的影响。结果表明：在历史气候条件下,椰心叶甲主要分布于中国的南部地区,高度适生区分布面积最大。在未来气候条件下,椰心叶甲在国内适生区总面积增加,适生区具有北移的趋势。本研究可为椰心叶甲的管理防控提供一定的理论依据。

关键词: 椰心叶甲, 气候变化, 气候适生区, CLIMEX4.0.0, ArcGIS

Abstract:

The study aims to clarify the potential distribution of Brontispa longissima in China to reduce the economic and ecological losses caused by the invasion of the pest. Based on CLIMEX software and the biological data of B. longissima, this study combined with inverse distance-weighted interpolation analysis function of ArcGIS, used historical climate data (1981-2010) and simulated future climate data (2071-2100) to analyze the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of B. longissima. The results showed that Brontispa longissima was mainly distributed in the southern part of China, and the very favorable region occupied the largest proportion under historical climate conditions. Besides, the total suitable area of B. longissima in China would increase and the suitable area would move northward under future climate conditions. This study could provide a theoretical basis for the management and control of B. longissima.

Key words: Brontispa longissima, climate change, potential distribution, CLIMEX4.0.0, ArcGIS

中图分类号:

S763.38

戴玉斌. 气候变化对椰心叶甲在中国适生区的影响[J]. 中国农学通报, 2020, 36(23): 112-117.

Dai Yubin. Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Brontispa longissima in China[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2020, 36(23): 112-117.

图/表 5

参考文献 24

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CLIMEX参数	英文全称	最终参数值
发育起点温度DV₀	lower temperature threshold	13℃
适宜温度下限DV₁	lower optimum temperature	24℃
适宜温度上限DV₂	upper optimum threshold	30℃
限制性高温DV₃	upper temperature threshold	36℃
限制性最低土壤持水量SM₀	lower soil moisture threshold	0.1
土壤最适持水量下限SM₁	lower optimal soil moisture	0.8
土壤最适持水量上限SM₂	upper optimal soil moisture	1.5
最高土壤持水量SM₃	upper soil moisture threshold	2.5
冷胁迫温度阈值TTCS	cold stress temperature threshold	10℃
冷胁迫温度积累速率THCS	cold stress temperature rate	-0.0002℃/周
热胁迫温度阈值TTHS	heat stress temperature threshold	37℃
热胁迫温度积累速率THHS	heat stress temperature rate	0.0002℃/周
干胁迫阈值SMDS	dry stress threshold	0.1
干胁迫积累速率HDS	dry stress rate	-0.01/周
湿胁迫阈值SMWS	wet stress threshold	2.5
湿胁迫积累速率HWS	wet stress rate	0.002/周
有效积温PDD	effective degree days	863℃·d

CLIMEX参数	英文全称	最终参数值
发育起点温度DV₀	lower temperature threshold	13℃
适宜温度下限DV₁	lower optimum temperature	24℃
适宜温度上限DV₂	upper optimum threshold	30℃
限制性高温DV₃	upper temperature threshold	36℃
限制性最低土壤持水量SM₀	lower soil moisture threshold	0.1
土壤最适持水量下限SM₁	lower optimal soil moisture	0.8
土壤最适持水量上限SM₂	upper optimal soil moisture	1.5
最高土壤持水量SM₃	upper soil moisture threshold	2.5
冷胁迫温度阈值TTCS	cold stress temperature threshold	10℃
冷胁迫温度积累速率THCS	cold stress temperature rate	-0.0002℃/周
热胁迫温度阈值TTHS	heat stress temperature threshold	37℃
热胁迫温度积累速率THHS	heat stress temperature rate	0.0002℃/周
干胁迫阈值SMDS	dry stress threshold	0.1
干胁迫积累速率HDS	dry stress rate	-0.01/周
湿胁迫阈值SMWS	wet stress threshold	2.5
湿胁迫积累速率HWS	wet stress rate	0.002/周
有效积温PDD	effective degree days	863℃·d