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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2026, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (6): 141-149.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2025-0401

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

新疆叶城县核桃花期冻害气象条件及成因分析

凯迪日耶·克日木1(), 王雪姣2,3, 王森2,3(), 克日木·阿巴司4, 郭燕云2,3, 火勋国3, 张立祯5, 黄彬香5   

  1. 1 伊犁师范大学资源与环境学院， 新疆伊犁 835000
    2 新疆气象局气候中心， 乌鲁木齐 830002
    3 新疆农业气象防灾减灾工程技术研究中心， 乌鲁木齐 830002
    4 新疆维吾尔自治区喀什地区气象局， 新疆喀什 844000
    5 中国农业大学资源与环境学院/中国气象局-中国农业大学农业应对气候变化联合实验室， 北京 100193
  • 收稿日期:2025-05-21 修回日期:2025-12-23 出版日期:2026-03-25 发布日期:2026-03-30
  • 通讯作者:
    王森，男，1990年出生，高级工程师，硕士，主要从事农业气象灾害方面的研究。通信地址：830002 新疆维吾尔自治区乌鲁木齐市天山区建国路327号 新疆维吾尔自治区气象局，E-mail：
  • 作者简介:

    凯迪日耶·克日木，女，2005年出生，在读学士，研究方向：自然地理与资源环境。通信地址：835000 新疆维吾尔自治区伊犁哈萨克自治州伊宁市解放西路448号 伊犁师范大学资源与环境学院，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发任务专项“林果气象灾害致灾机理与风险预警技术研发”(2023B02004-2); 自治区天山英才计划“三农”骨干人才项目“新疆优势林果气候品质认证技术研究及应用推广”(2023SNGGNT006)

Agroclimatic Conditions Leading to Freezing Injury in Walnut Flowering-stage and Its Causes Analysis: A Case Study of Yecheng County, Xinjiang

KAIDIRIYE Kerimu1(), WANG Xuejiao2,3, WANG Sen2,3(), KERIMU Abasi4, GUO Yanyun2,3, HUO Xunguo3, ZHANG Lizhen5, HUANG Binxiang5   

  1. 1 College of Resources and Environment, Yili Normal University, Yili, Xinjiang 835000
    2 Climate Center of Xinjiang Meteorological Bureau, Urumqi 830002
    3 Xinjiang Agrometeorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction Engineering Technology Research Center, Urumqi 830002
    4 Kashi Meteorological Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Kashi, Xinjiang 844000
    5 College of Resources and Environment, China Agricultural University/Joint Laboratory of Agriculture Response to Climate Change, China Meteorological Administration and China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193
  • Received:2025-05-21 Revised:2025-12-23 Published:2026-03-25 Online:2026-03-30

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摘要：

本文基于1991—2025年叶城县国家基本气象站气象观测数据及核桃物候、冻害资料，采用花芽受冻率及产量分析，结合气候倾向率法、线性倾向法等统计方法，系统解析叶城核桃花期冻害的气象驱动机制。结果表明：极端低温（日最低气温<6℃及其持续时长）、地表温度骤降、沙尘暴复合型天气（伴随强风、降雪）、倒春寒及霜冻是叶城核桃花期冻害的关键气象因子。其中，温度突变特征（如日最低气温，土壤表层极端低温降幅）与气象灾害叠加效应（沙尘暴与降雪共现）显著增强冻害花芽冻害。本研究明确了叶城县核桃花期冻害预警的关键阈值参数与复合灾害识别依据，为当地防冻减灾提供参考。

关键词: 叶城核桃, 花期冻害, 极端低温, 温度突变, 土壤表面温度, 沙尘暴, 霜冻, 倒春寒, 致灾因子

Abstract:

Based on meteorological observations from the Yecheng National Ordinary Meteorological Station (1991—2025), walnut phenological records, and survey data on freezing injury during the flowering period, this study analyzed the flower-bud freezing rate and yield, and used the climatic tendency rate method and the linear tendency method to clarify the meteorological driving mechanisms of flowering-stage freezing injury in Yecheng. The results show that the key meteorological factors include extreme low-temperature events (daily minimum temperature <6℃ and their duration), abrupt drops in ground surface temperature, compound weather systems with sandstorms (sandstorms accompanied by strong winds and snowfall), late spring cold spells, and frost events. In particular, temperature mutation features (e.g., daily minimum temperature and the magnitude of extreme low-temperature drops in the surface soil layer) and the superposition of hazards (co-occurrence of sandstorms and snowfall) markedly aggravate flower-bud freezing injury. These findings provide key threshold parameters and a basis for identifying compound disasters for monitoring and early warning of flowering-stage freezing injury in Yecheng County, and they also support the development of frost-protection and disaster-mitigation measures.

Key words: Yecheng walnut, flowering-stage freezing injury, extreme low temperature, temperature mutation, surface soil temperature, sandstorm, frost, late spring cold, hazard factors