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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2020, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (9): 150-158.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb18120038

• 农业信息 科技教育 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于多项Logit模型的牧户生计资本对生计策略选择影响的实证研究

丁文强1,2,3(), 董海宾3, 侯向阳3(), 李西良3, 尹燕亭3   

  1. (1)中共宁夏回族自治区委员会党校,银川 750021
    (2)兰州大学草地农业科技学院,兰州 730020
    (3)中国农业科学院草原研究所,呼和浩特 010010
  • 收稿日期:2018-12-11 修回日期:2019-01-17 出版日期:2020-03-25 发布日期:2020-03-15
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于预防性储蓄理论的北方草原牧户超载行为机制和适应性减畜策略研究”(71774162);国家重点基础研究项目“天然草原生产力的调控机制与途径”(2014CB138806);中国农业科学院科技创新项目“草原生态系统保护与利用团队”(CAAS-ASTIP-IGR2015-05)

Empirical Study on the Choice of Livelihood Strategies Affected by Herdsmen’s Livelihood Capital Based on Multinomial Logit Model

Wenqiang Ding1,2,3(), Haibin Dong3, Xiangyang Hou3(), Xiliang Li3, Yanting Yin3   

  1. (1)The Party School of the CPC Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region party Committee, Yinchuan 750021
    (2)College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730020
    (3)Institute of Grassland Research of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hohhot 0 10010
  • Received:2018-12-11 Revised:2019-01-17 Online:2020-03-25 Published:2020-03-15

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摘要：

为探究牧户生计资本对生计策略影响,识别牧户生计策略转化的关键生计资本和生计资本指标,以便引导牧民调整生计结构,提高草原治理能力。以内蒙古自治区5种草原类型15个旗（县）848户牧户为样本,运用熵值法评估牧户生计资本,建立多项Logit回归模型,识别影响牧户生计策略转化的关键生计资本。研究区牧户生计资本值为1.428;4类生计策略牧户生计资本存量为纯牧性>牧兼性>兼牧性>非牧性,P< 0.01;5种草原类型牧户生计资本存量为草甸草原>典型草原>荒漠草原>沙地草原>草原化荒漠,P<0.01。牧户以牧业收入和政府转移收入为主,纯牧性生计策略为首选的策略;金融资本存量是影响生计策略转化的关键生计资本,对牧户由纯牧性向牧兼性、兼牧性和非牧性生计策略转化均具有显著负向影响。牧户家庭承包草地资源、使用草地资源和家庭总收入是影响生计策略转化的关键生计资本指标。

关键词: 生计资本, 生计策略, 影响因素, 多项Logit模型, 牧户

Abstract:

The study aims to explore the impact of herdsmen’s livelihood capital on livelihood strategies, identify the key livelihood capital and livelihood capital indicators in the transformation of herdsmen's livelihood strategies, so as to guide herdsmen to adjust their livelihood structure and improve grassland governance ability. Taking 848 herdsmen in 15 banners (counties) of 5 grassland types in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as samples, this paper evaluates herdsmen’s livelihood capital by using the method of entropy, establishes multiple logit regression models, and identifies the key livelihood capital that affects the transformation of herdsmen’s livelihood strategies. The value of livelihood capital of pastoral households in the study area is 1.428. Four kinds of livelihood strategies are as follows: pure herdsman, facultative herdsman, facultative herdsman and non-herdsman, P<0.01. Five types of grassland herdsman’s livelihood capital stock from high to low are: meadow grassland, typical grassland, desert grassland, sandy grassland, grassland desertification, P<0.01. Pastoral households’ income is mainly transferred by the government, and pure pastoral livelihood strategy is the preferred strategy. Financial capital stock is the key livelihood capital affecting the transformation of livelihood strategy, which has a significant negative impact on the transformation of pastoral households’ livelihood strategy from pure pastoral to pastoral, pastoral and non-pastoral. The key livelihood capital indicators affecting the transformation of livelihood strategies are the household contract of grassland resources, the use of grassland resources and the total household income.

Key words: livelihood capital, livelihood strategy, influencing factors, multinomial Logit mode, herdsmen

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