关键词: 霜冻, 风险评估区划, GIS, 气象灾害, 吉林省

Abstract:

According to the disaster risk theory, the risk assessment and regionalization of frost disaster in Jilin were conducted to reduce the damage caused by frost disaster and provide a basis for the rational distribution of agricultural production. On the basis of daily minimum surface ground temperature, frost disaster data and crop planting area data, by using the natural disaster risk index method, weighted comprehensive analysis and analytic hierarchy process, we assessed the disaster-causing factors, sensitivity of hazard inducing environment and vulnerability of natural disaster bodies, and studied the risk assessment and regionalization of frost disaster in Jilin based on GIS. The results showed that: the frost disaster in Jilin could be divided into 5 levels, i.e. the highest, the high, the middle, the low and the lowest; the high and highest risk areas of early frost were located in Baicheng, Changchun, Jilin and Siping; the high and highest risk areas of late frost were located in Changchun, Jilin and Yanbian; the early and late frost risk regionalization results were both positively correlated with the frost disaster data significantly, the correlation coefficients were 0.496 and 0.490 (P<0.01), respectively. The frost disaster risk assessment model could reflect the distribution characteristics of the early and late frost risk, and there are differences between early frost and late frost in spatial distribution; the correlation analysis shows that the risk regionalization results tally with the frost disaster data. Under the background of climate warming, we need to attach importance to frost disaster.

Key words: frost, risk assessment and regionalization, GIS, meteorological disaster, Jilin