The Best Viewing Period of Ginkgo: Meteorological Condition Analysis and Prediction in Huzhou

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb17080045

Abstract

Abstract: The paper aims to forecast the best viewing period of ginkgo and provide related meteorological services. Based on the phenological observation data and meteorological data in Huzhou during 2000-2015, the authors analyzed the phenological characteristics of ginkgo leaves in autumn and the relationship between the best viewing period and meteorological conditions, and established the best viewing period forecasting model. The results showed that: there was a significant negative correlation between the best viewing period and temperature, that was to say, the higher the temperature, the earlier the best viewing period; there was a certain temperature threshold condition before the best viewing period; according to the characteristics of cold air, the best viewing period could be divided into 3 types: warmer, cooling and wave; a short-term climate prediction model was established by using SPSS software, and the medium-term forecast was revised according to the meteorological threshold and cold air characteristics. The results are satisfied through forecast test in 2015, and can be used for business trial application.

CLC Number:

S687

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