Abstract:

Based on the meteorological data of blueberry ripening period from 1991 to 2020 of four stations in Dandong area, the maximum daily temperature of blueberry ripening period ≥32℃ lasting for 3 days and above was taken as the index of high temperature sunburn disaster. Considering the frequency and duration, the degree of high temperature sunburn disaster was established, and the regularity of high temperature sunburn disaster was analyzed, risk probability of high temperature sunburn disaster was evaluated based on information diffusion theory. The results showed that the effects of high temperature sunburn on blueberries in Dandong area were aggravated and the number of sunburn increased during the whole ripening period in 30 years, especially in Fengcheng area, the tendency rate of high temperature sunburn was 0.236 times/10 a (P<0.01). The risk of high temperature sunburn was low in the middle maturity period of 30 years, and the risk probability of mild and moderate high temperature sunburn was less than once in 10 years (≤10%), and no disaster occurred in Donggang area, the probability of occurrence of minor disasters was close to or more than once in 10 years (≥10%). Fengcheng district was a high risk area of high temperature sunburn disaster. The disaster area was wide, the frequency was high and the degree was heavy. The probabilities of light and severe high temperature sunburn disaster were all more than once in 10 years (≥10%). The results of the study obtained the risk probability and the law of recurrence period of different levels of high temperature sunburn disaster in each site, which provided a reference for scientific response to high temperature sunburn disaster in blueberry mature period.

Key words: blueberry, mature period, high temperature sunburn, information diffusion theory, risk probability, meteorological data, risk assessment, return period, information diffusion theory, Dandong region