Spatiotemporal Patterns of Winter Wheat Water Productivity and Its Decomposition in Western Shandong Plain

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2024-0115

Abstract

Abstract:

Improving crop water productivity (CWP) is an important way to reduce agricultural water use and achieve sustainable development, and mastering the temporal and spatial characteristics of CWP is an important premise to improve CWP by managing production and water consumption. Based on remote sensing evapotranspiration (ET) and agricultural production data, the temporal and spatial patterns of CWP of winter wheat in western Shandong Plain were analyzed, and the contribution of ET and average yield to CWP’s variation was discussed by index decomposition analysis. The results showed that since 2002, the average yield of winter wheat increased significantly (P<0.05) in western Shandong Plain, which promoted the steady increase of the total yield of winter wheat. But after 2010, the contribution of average yield decreased gradually. After 2010, the number of counties with positive effect of planting area (planting area increasing and total yield increasing, or planting area decreasing and total yield decreasing) showed a decreasing trend. After 2006, winter wheat CWP increased significantly (P<0.05) in western Shandong Plain, reaching 1.64 kg/m³ in 2016. The spatial distribution of CWP showed that Dezhou and Jining were the “hot spots” with high CWP. Variation of winter wheat CWP was directly affected by average yield and ET. After 2010, the number of counties with positive effect of average yield (average yield increasing and CWP increasing, or average yield decreasing and CWP decreasing) decreased, and the number of counties with positive effect of ET (ET increasing and CWP decreasing, or ET decreasing and CWP increasing) remained at a high level. It showed that ET played a more important role in the changing of CWP. Under the current situation of flat yield growth, managing ET had become an important way to improve winter wheat CWP in western Shandong Plain, and it was also necessary to further explore the potential of increasing average yield. This study could provide reference for making decision of winter wheat production and water consumption management in western Shandong Plain.

Key words: water productivity, spatiotemporal pattern, driving factors, factor decomposition, winter wheat

WU Shulan, REN Pinpin, HOU Shuhai, WANG Shusen, SONG Bailian, HUANG Feng. Spatiotemporal Patterns of Winter Wheat Water Productivity and Its Decomposition in Western Shandong Plain[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2024, 40(23): 7-15.

Figures/Tables 9

References 33

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目标要素	变化趋势	单产		蒸散		种植面积
目标要素	变化趋势	增加	减少	增加	减少	增加	减少
CWP	增加	+	-	-	+
CWP	减少	-	+	+	-
总产	增加	+	-			+	-
总产	减少	-	+			-	+

目标要素	变化趋势	单产		蒸散		种植面积
目标要素	变化趋势	增加	减少	增加	减少	增加	减少
CWP	增加	+	-	-	+
CWP	减少	-	+	+	-
总产	增加	+	-			+	-
总产	减少	-	+			-	+