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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2024, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (24): 92-99.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0885

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤 • 上一篇    下一篇

十堰烟区近30年烤烟大田生长期气候因子变化特征分析

任恒1,2(), 曾繁蕊1,2, 杜世晔1,2, 陈子凡1,2, 沈雨1,2(), 严一霖1,2   

  1. 1 十堰市气象局，湖北十堰 442000
    2 湖北省烟叶气象服务中心，湖北十堰 442000
  • 收稿日期:2023-12-25 修回日期:2024-05-11 出版日期:2024-08-20 发布日期:2024-08-20
  • 通讯作者:
    沈雨，男，1997年出生，四川南充人，工程师，硕士，主要从事专业气象服务工作。通信地址：442000 湖北省十堰市林荫大道337号 湖北省十堰市气象局，Tel：0719-8651297，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    任恒，男，1975年出生，湖北房县人，高工，学士，主要从事专业气象服务工作。通信地址：442000 湖北省十堰市林荫大道337号 湖北省十堰市气象局，Tel：0719-8651297，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    中国烟草总公司湖北省公司科技项目“湖北省烤烟关键生育期气象指标推算与生态气候区划”(027Y2021-020); “湖北省雪茄烟优化种植的气象关键技术研究”(027Y2021-021); 湖北省气象局科技发展基金项目“鄂西北烟叶‘小壮苗早移栽’气象指标分析研究”(2021Q14); “气象条件对湖北省烟叶种植及品质影响关键技术研究”(2022Y11); 十堰市气象局横向课题“十堰市烟叶生产气象服务关键技术研究与应用项目”(2022001)

Characteristics Analysis of Climate Factors Changes During Growth Period of Flue-cured Tobacco in Shiyan Tobacco Growing Area over Past 30 Years

REN Heng1,2(), ZENG Fanrui1,2, DU Shiye1,2, CHEN Zifan1,2, SHEN Yu1,2(), YAN Yilin1,2   

  1. 1 Shiyan Meteorological Bureau of Hubei Province, Shiyan, Hubei 442000
    2 Hubei Tobacco Meteorological Service Center, Shiyan, Hubei 442000
  • Received:2023-12-25 Revised:2024-05-11 Published:2024-08-20 Online:2024-08-20

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摘要：

针对气候因子概率分布、周期变换规律对烟叶大田期不同生育阶段均存在不同差异性的现状，利用湖北省十堰烟区7个国家气象站1991—2020年4—9月气候统计资料，首先采用最小二乘法研究烟叶不同生育阶段气候因子年际变化趋势；其次采用核密度估计函数，研究不同生育阶段气候因子概率分布特征；最后采用小波变换算法，研究多时间尺度周期变换差异性。结果表明：烟叶不同生育阶段气候因子均存在一定年代差异性，气温条件较为稳定；日照时数在旺长期均呈递减趋势，其他生育期日照变化较为平稳；降水量方面各生育期存在较大差异；烟叶不同生育阶段气温、降水量概率分布存在较大差异，日照时数概率分布较为集中；不同生育阶段气候因子均存在多时间尺度周期变换规律，烟叶成熟期存在长时间尺度第一主周期变换，对气候因子敏感程度远高于其余阶段。研究结果为优化烟叶种植布局和提高种植效益提供了科学依据。

关键词: 烤烟, 烟叶生育阶段, 最小二乘, 核密度估计, 小波变换, 气候, 气候因子, 概率分布, 周期变换

Abstract:

According to the current situation that the probability distribution and periodic-change law of climate factors have different differences in different growth stages of tobacco leaves in field stage, the least square method was used to study the interannual trend of climate factors in different growth stages of tobacco leaves from April to September in 2020, based on the climatic statistical data of 7 national meteorological stations in Shiyan tobacco-growing area of Hubei Province. Secondly, the kernel density estimation function was used to study the probability distribution characteristics of climate factors at different growth stages. Finally, wavelet transform algorithm was used to study the difference of multi-time scale periodic transformation. The results showed that the climatic factors in different growth stages of tobacco had certain age differences, and the temperature conditions were relatively stable. The sunshine duration showed a decreasing trend in prosperous period, and the sunshine duration in other growth period was stable. There were great differences in precipitation in different growth stages. The probability distribution of temperature and precipitation in different growth stages of tobacco leaves was different, and the probability distribution of sunshine hours was concentrated. There were multi-time scale periodic changes in climate factors at different growth stages, and there was a long time scale first main cycle change in tobacco ripening stage, which was much more sensitive to climate factors than the other stages. The research findings provide a more scientific guidance for tobacco cultivation, optimizing the layout and enhancing the quality and efficiency of tobacco production.

Key words: flue-cured tobacco, tobacco growth stages, least squares, kernel density estimation, wavelet transform, climate, climatic factors, probability distribution, cyclical variations