Abstract:

In order to fully understand the impact of rainstorm disaster on the maturity stage of Actinidia arguta, the meteorological data of the maturity stage of A. arguta at four stations in Dandong from 1991 to 2020 were used. The rainstorm with continuous 2 d or more than 2 d (daily precipitation ≥0.1 mm, and at least 1 d precipitation ≥50 mm) was used as the index of rainstorm disaster. Considering the frequency, intensity and duration, the grades of mild, moderate and severe rainstorm disasters were formulated. The variation law of rainstorm disaster of A. arguta was analyzed by the number of disasters and the ratio of stations. The risk probability of rainstorm disaster was evaluated based on information diffusion theory. The results showed that the number of days of rainstorm process in the mature period of A. arguta in the study area increased in 30 a, and the increase in Kuandian area was the largest, with an average increase of 0.4 d per 10 a, and the occurrence of rainstorm disaster might be higher. During the 30 years, the occurrence frequency of different grades of rainstorm in the mature period of A. arguta in the study area was mild> moderate> severe, and the risk probability of rainstorm disaster was consistent with it, which was 27.9%, 11.5% and 7.2%, respectively. At the same time, the high risk probability areas corresponding to the three grades of rainstorm disaster were Zhen’an, Donggang and Zhen’an. In summary, although the probability of rainstorm disaster risk in Kuandian area is not as high as that in Zhen’an and Donggang, the precipitation is higher than that in the two areas, indicating that Kuandian area is more prone to high-level rainstorm weather processes. The risk of rainstorm disaster in the mature stage of A. arguta in Dandong area is high, with wide range and heavy degree. The research results obtained the risk probability and return period law of different grades of rainstorm disasters at each station, which provided a reference for scientific response to rainstorm disasters in the mature stage of A. arguta.

Key words: Actinidia arguta, maturity period, rainstorm disaster, information diffusion, risk probability