Risk Assessment and Zoning of Drought Disasters in Shandong Province

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2022-0276

Abstract

Abstract:

As a major agricultural province in China, Shandong is one of the most important grain-producing areas in the country. The province is affected by the monsoon climate and is prone to drought disaster. Therefore, the disaster risk assessment and zoning of drought in Shandong Province can prevent drought disasters more scientifically, which is of certain guiding significance to improving drought disaster risk management, enhancing decision-making and reducing economic losses. Based on the principle of natural disaster risk assessment, this paper used the basic data of meteorology, soil and topography, and high-precision data of land use type and normalized differential vegetation index in Shandong, adopted the methods of weighted comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy process, as well as GIS spatial analysis technology, to assess and zone the risk of drought. The results showed that the risk of drought in Shandong was high, areas with medium and high risk accounted for 59.40% of the total, and the high risk areas were mainly located in the northwestern part of Shandong and the eastern part of Jiaodong peninsula. The exposure of disaster-bearing bodies was high, areas with medium and high exposure accounted for 70.66% of the total, and the high exposure areas were mainly located in the western and southern parts of Shandong, and some areas in the central part were also highly exposed. The vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies was slightly high, areas with medium and high vulnerability accounted for 48.1% of the total, and high vulnerability areas were mainly located in the southwestern part of Shandong. The disaster prevention and mitigation capacity of Shandong was strong, areas with medium and high disaster prevention and mitigation capacity accounted for 50.87% of the total, and areas with high disaster prevention and mitigation capacity were mainly located in the Jiaodong peninsula and some areas in the north of the province. The comprehensive risk of drought in Shandong was high, areas with medium and high comprehensive risk accounted for 54.04% of the total, and mainly located in the western and central parts of Shandong, and the eastern part of the province had relatively low comprehensive risk of drought.

Key words: drought disaster, risk zoning, principles of disaster risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process, Shandong Province

CHU Yue, XUE Xiaoping, ZHANG Lijuan, HUANG Yutao, WANG Nan, WANG Nan, JIANG Meiyi, WANG Yumeng, GUO Xihui, YANG Yiping, ZHAO Yufeng, ZHAO Enbo. Risk Assessment and Zoning of Drought Disasters in Shandong Province[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2023, 39(10): 101-112.

Figures/Tables 17

References 48

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标度b_ij	定义
1	i因素与j因素同等重要
3	i因素较j因素略为重要
5	i因素较j因素重要
7	i因素较j因素非常重要
9	i因素较j因素绝对重要
2，4，6，8	介于上述各等级之间

标度b_ij	定义
1	i因素与j因素同等重要
3	i因素较j因素略为重要
5	i因素较j因素重要
7	i因素较j因素非常重要
9	i因素较j因素绝对重要
2，4，6，8	介于上述各等级之间

土壤质地	综合评分	土壤质地	综合评分
粘土	1	粘质壤土	2
粉壤土	5	壤土	4
砂质粘壤土	3	砂壤土	6
壤质砂土	6	砂土	7

土壤质地	综合评分	土壤质地	综合评分
粘土	1	粘质壤土	2
粉壤土	5	壤土	4
砂质粘壤土	3	砂壤土	6
壤质砂土	6	砂土	7

地区	高风险性		中风险性		低风险性		轻风险性
地区	面积/km²	比例/%	面积/km²	比例/%	面积/km²	比例/%	面积/km²	比例/%
滨州市	86.7	0.90	5801.62	60.41	3664.29	38.15	51.88	0.54
德州市	10034.57	94.81	542.22	5.12	7.12	0.07	0	0
东营市	0	0	15.26	0.21	224.82	3.14	6920.64	96.65
菏泽市	11798.55	97.55	290.95	2.41	5.09	0.04	0	0
济南市	39.67	0.38	3535.09	33.68	6344.85	60.44	577.82	5.50
济宁市	1939.98	17.32	8405.88	75.06	839.27	7.49	13.22	0.12
聊城市	8092.56	92.50	656.15	7.50	0	0	0	0
临沂市	815.87	4.73	6700.90	38.85	9636.81	55.88	92.57	0.54
青岛市	0	0	107.83	0.96	10660.20	95.32	416.07	3.72
日照市	0	0	59.00	1.10	2461.85	45.90	2842.31	53.00
泰安市	21.36	0.27	5245.16	66.45	2625.63	33.26	1.02	0.01
威海市	0	0	50.86	0.90	5248.21	93.17	333.67	5.92
潍坊市	473.04	2.93	15229.88	94.36	409.97	2.54	26.45	0.16
烟台市	0	0	1192.27	8.59	10287.87	74.09	2404.88	17.32
枣庄市	0	0	62.05	1.36	3304.16	72.50	1191.25	26.14
淄博市	21.36	0.35	4119.02	67.40	1966.43	32.18	4.07	0.07